[rob74]

Unfortunately, I have to agree with you. As the saying goes: "better the devil you know". China can at least so far be relied upon to not shoot itself in the foot (and take the whole word with it). The same cannot be said of other great powers like the US (under Trump, for more reasons than I'm willing to list here) and Russia (with Putin's completely harebrained invasion of Ukraine). China can prove me wrong any time by invading Taiwan, but I still hope they don't. Of course, if we try to keep them away from advanced chip technology, that would be further motivation to invade (although TSMC is unlikely to survive an invasion - even if it did survive the actual conflict, it would probably be destroyed or evacuated to avoid it falling into Chinese hands? But I don't want to see the hardware prices after such an event).

[ethbr1]

> China can at least so far be relied upon to not shoot itself in the foot (and take the whole word with it)

Here's the dangerous thing about that: modern CCP China is a newly ascendant world power.

Say what you want about the US today, but when was it at isn't interventionist worst historically-speaking?

Countries don't go to war because their leaders take them to war: they go to war because a sufficient chunk of internal interests support war.

And China has a rather politically-powerful military. Although Xi's recent housecleaning substantially weakened that power.

If China goes to war, it's probably going to be because their economy is in tatters.

[rob74]

> If China goes to war, it's probably going to be because their economy is in tatters.

Well, they probably also have to factor in whether invading Taiwan is likely to improve that situation, and I would argue that it's not - China is currently exporting stuff all over the world, so economic sanctions would be very painful for them. And there are lots of countries who would like to have a slice of the manufacturing that China is currently hogging...

[ethbr1]

Very rarely do countries go to war because they think it will improve their economy.

They go to war because a large chunk of their population is pissed off about the economy.

See also: US

[maest]

The US routinely goes to war to secure cheap oil, so I didn't think that's a good example

[RobotToaster]

Great powers go to war due to Thucydides Trap. When a hegemon feels their position is threatened by the success of a rising power, they usually try to crush it. https://www.belfercenter.org/programs/thucydidess-trap/thucy...

[aprentic]

I believe that China's deep answer to that problem is, "There are no just wars in the Spring and Autumn period. "

There are some internal policy papers to that effect.

[monooso]

There is considerable evidence to suggest that the current US President goes to war if it will make him a quick buck.

[scottyah]

China has planned out the invasion/reclamation of Taiwan in 2027. They held true to their Hong Kong timeline, not sure why this would be any different.

[Foobar8568]

And let's not forget the kidnapping of a foreign president, and nothing happened.

[roysting]

Don’t let the manipulative narcissists lead you into the trap of false equivalence

[p2detar]

> China can at least so far be relied upon to not shoot itself in the foot

We still don't know where and how Covid came to be, so no - hard disagree.

[jeltz]

We do well enough. It either happened naturally, or less likely due to a lab accident. If there is a cover up it is to hide incompetence.

[p2detar]

I have read the WHO [0] report and the conclusion is "possibly to likely" about the zoonotic origin of Covid, so no there isn't conclusive report how it came to be.

> If there is a cover up it is to hide incompetence.

Which is my point to GP's "reliable" argument. China is not reliable and has its own interests at play just like the US or any other state for that matter, regardless of its international partnerships. It does want to project itself as "reliable" - that I can't deny.

0 - https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/who-convened-global-...

[rob74]

Yes we do. We also (despite theories stating the contrary) know that the current climate change is caused by us burning too many fossil fuels, that the utility of vaccines preventing deadly diseases outweighs any rare side effects, that airlines are not involved in a secret conspiracy of releasing chemicals (all airlines at the same time and only in certain meteorological conditions), and that the earth is roughly spherical.