[stldev]

This is my read too- if American companies start backing nonsense like this, they'll fall behind permanently.

> My primary concern is the risk that authoritarian governments—not solely the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), although the CCP is clearly the most capable threat—

Isn't this article an argument in favor of authoritarianism? Plus a tad hypocritical no? The US is on an obvious authoritarian path; complete with threatening their neighbors, murdering innocent civilians, and locking up innocent people in droves

Please stop giving this company money, people.

[0xDEAFBEAD]

>The US is on an obvious authoritarian path; complete with threatening their neighbors, murdering innocent civilians, and locking up innocent people in droves

Prediction markets suggest the next US president is most likely one of the following people: Gavin Newsom, Jon Ossoff, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Kamala Harris, JD Vance, Marco Rubio.

It's not obvious to me that the US is on an "authoritarian path".

Would you say that e.g. Europe is on an "authoritarian path" with the popularity of government censorship there? https://eternallyradicalidea.com/p/the-situation-for-free-sp...

Your comment seems like more of a diatribe than a serious analysis of likely future scenarios.

[psychoslave]

>Would you say that e.g. Europe is on an "authoritarian path" with the popularity of government censorship there?

As an European citizen living in Europe, definitely yes it is, and not only for the "mere" censorship factor. Maybe not yet as down the road and maybe not going as fast as US. But that’s not something that one can really be content of.

[vrganj]

Prediction Markets are people gambling.

There's armed goons nabbing people off the streets and murdering political opponents patrolling American cities right now.

[0xDEAFBEAD]

>Prediction Markets are people gambling.

If you think the market has it wrong, why don't you make money by betting against it?

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-20...

>There's armed goons nabbing people off the streets and murdering political opponents patrolling American cities right now.

What is the actual per-capita rate of big flashy news stories? Remember that the US has a population of 340 million. One-in-a-million events will occur every day; they aren't necessarily representative.

[watwut]

> If you think the market has it wrong, why don't you make money by betting against it?

Because I am not gambler. And it is not "market" it is a casino. It does not predict, people put in bets. And like I said, while I understand gambling appeal on an emotional level, I decided to not be a gambler.

> One-in-a-million events will occur every day; they aren't necessarily representative.

It is literal official policy. Not a random event.

[vrganj]

> If you think the market has it wrong, why don't you make money by betting against it?

I don't just think "the market has it wrong", I think a market is wrong conceptually. It is not an epistemological tool, it's rich people gambling - a money-weighted accumulation of guesses - and I'd rather not partake.

> What is the actual per-capita rate of big flashy news stories?

What is the appropriate rate of brownshirts murdering political opponents? Which level of kids being nabbed from their homes is acceptable?

[0xDEAFBEAD]

>I don't just think "the market has it wrong", I think a market is wrong conceptually. I'd rather not join the other degenerate gamblers.

"My beliefs are unfalsifiable"

>What is the appropriate rate of brownshirts murdering political opponents? Which level of kids being nabbed from their homes is acceptable?

Tom Homan, Trump's border czar, also served in the Obama administration. Obama gave him a medal for his deportation work. People like you will frame the same activity quite differently depending on whether you like the people who are doing it.

In any case, I didn't deny that the US had a problem with authoritarianism. I said it wasn't obvious that it was on an "authoritarian path". See for example https://www.npr.org/2026/04/04/nx-s1-5768273/after-minnesota...

I'll bet you yourself would happily justify the EU authoritarianism here: https://eternallyradicalidea.com/p/the-situation-for-free-sp... You seem like the sort of person who has an authoritarian mentality. You'll happily support cops arresting people for saying things online, but if cops arrest people for illegally entering a country, that somehow crosses a line into "authoritarianism". Am I right?

[vrganj]

My claim is falsifiable by facts, not by casino odds. Show me the armed abductions aren’t happening. Show me the administration hasn’t threatened neighbors or purged civil servants. Those are the relevant facts. "What does Polymarket say about 2028?" is a Bayesian dodge, not a rebuttal.

The article you linked describes ICE officers killing two U.S. citizens, tear-gassing neighborhoods, and deputizing local police as a "force multiplier" to create a "sea change in local policing". You cited this as evidence the US is not on an authoritarian path. Maybe we have different definitions of "authoritarianism", but I don't see how this helps your case?

From there you pivoted to "but Obama," then "but Europe," then to psychoanalyzing my "mentality." I haven’t defended the EU, or Obama, or any censorship regime. You’re shadowboxing a partisan cartoon because the actual evidence - federal agents abducting residents, your own NPR link - is too uncomfortable to engage with directly