I think the argument is that decentralization leads to deceleration because it means less centralized funding and data. Those are the two primary ingredients for accel.
The problem with the decel/accel rhetoric is that it lacks nuance.
If your worldview is “most of the progress is made by closed labs, then open labs fast-follow” (which isn’t implausible given the documented distillation of Fable), and further that open labs cannot make make meaningful progress vs the closed labs except by fast-following and that they won’t pick up the ability to make progress after the closed labs are gone, then driving closed labs out of business slows down overall progress.
I think it's pretty hard to hold that worldview: Anthropic couldn't ship a reasoning model until they copied DeepSeek R1's homework, and they've all copied DS-style super-sparse MoEs at this point too.
That’s a really good point. Folks really need to read the papers coming out of these Chinese labs. Every paper from the DeepSeek team has been a step change.
With slightly different cherry-picking, you could equally well claim that DeepSeek couldn't ship a reasoning model until they copied the idea from OpenAI's o1-preview, and they also copied MoEs from Google Brain/Jagellonian University https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.06538 way back in 2017, too!
But ultimately these were ideas floating around in the air, if one group hadn't done the experiment, someone else would have.
No, OpenAI did not publish how they trained o1, and at the time there was significant misunderstanding and belief in the research community that they were using some kind of Monte-Carlo tree search. DeepSeek figured out GRPO on their own. Similarly, while others invented MoEs, DeepSeek's ultra-sparse variants were extremely novel, to the point where the revelation of how efficient they were to train temporarily collapsed Nvidia's stock.
Regardless I think it's impossible to believe that most LLM research was done by closed labs that don't publish, especially Anthropic (who missed out on and copied two of the largest pieces of important research of the last several years), and that none was done by open labs like DeepSeek, and that the open labs are just copycats. It's quite clear that isn't the case.
Open Source models decelerate growth of closed AI. For people who think (or want) AI = closed_AI then that argument has weight. Good luck getting them to update their priors.
the argument is that we should all fold and let sam altman burn trillions of dollars on naive scaling and pay monopoly prices for their closed APIs until the models are good enough to be closed off for "safety" reasons so that they can take an even larger cut by competing directly with us
Open source AI is actually a lot less "powerful" than genuine frontier models, i.e. it has a much tighter inherent capability ceiling. This is "decelerationist" from a purely AGI-pilled point of view but it's actually great if you're worried about a capabilities arms race putting AI Safety at severe risk.
Kimi K3 is plausibly a lot less dangerous than a totally jailbroken ChatGPT/Gemini/Claude Sonnet (let alone Opus or Fable!) and it's quite deeply weird how no one seems to be calling for those models to be banned or restrained by further regulation. Why the double standard against the less concerning (but more efficient!) open weight models?
If you're targeting widespread local/on prem deployment which is what many open weight models are doing, that inherently limits your scale in terms of total model weights/inference-time compute compared to running in a few centralized datacenters. A centralized model will always be able to leverage a larger scale of deployment, placing it much closer to the genuine "frontier".
It’s a different topic but it’s correct imo. Open sourcing things is the best way to accelerate development.
Put another way, if you want to slow things down, put it behind a paywall, tag ideas ans “intellectual property” (meaning you’re the only one who can use it) and get the lawyers involved (injecting our slow legal system).
None of the above is a judgement call on whether development should be accelerated.
I know it's a hard ask on this site, but I need you to start parsing content and not tone. It was a helpful bit of context, even if it was a bit vitriolic.
The content was 'you need to get your head checked'. That isn't tone, that directly implying that if you hold that position, there is something wrong with you. It's rude and unnecessary.
Because discourse around tone isn't productive. You could wipe this whole comment thread, starting with the parent of mine, and lose exactly zero information.
Oh, I understand. It's the nature of the voting system of comment feedback. Reddit behaves the same way. Arguments become competitions to see who can inject enough vitriol while still maintaining a placid genteel demeanor. The one who "wins" (convinces the peanut gallery to upvote them) is the one who can avoid looking like they got mad.
It's why people can advocate for ethnic cleansing here, and that's fine as long as they word it correctly, but if someone calls them an asshole about it, they're flagged.
Really common in rationalist circles from my experience as well because they believe that true statements aren't always normative, and that, since their arguments are true because they're rational, their statements aren't necessarily normative. Begging the question, of course, but I see that in situations like Scott Alexander's defense of "human biodiversity" theories (the whole HBD moniker is itself an example of everything I'm talking about condensed into two words).
> Oh, I understand. It's the nature of the voting system of comment feedback. Reddit behaves the same way. Arguments become competitions to see who can inject enough vitriol while still maintaining a placid genteel demeanor. The one who "wins" (convinces the peanut gallery to upvote them) is the one who can avoid looking like they got mad.
Depends on which subreddit and which flavor of groupthink. The behavior you say is upvoted is one I often see downvoted to oblivion on Reddit.
> but if someone calls them an asshole about it, they're flagged.
That's because name calling is against HN guidelines.
Just an aside since it's not clear: I think the asshole is the one using labels like "decel" (or even "MAGA" unless the person self describes). It's irrelevant if I agree with the rest of the comment.
It's OK to call people out for name calling while still agreeing with the rest.
It's problematic to require one acknowledge the quality of the rest of the comment when calling them out on their name calling.
Put in a less twisted manner: If it's OK to address his comment sans the "decel", it should also be OK to address his use of "decel" without discussing the rest of the comment.
>Depends on which subreddit and which flavor of groupthink. The behavior you say is upvoted is one I often see downvoted to oblivion on Reddit.
Really doubt that but feel free to give an example.
>If it's OK to address his comment sans the "decel", it should also be OK to address his use of "decel" without discussing the rest of the comment
I think the only acceptable response is to answer his argument if you can read it. If you can't handle a heated commenter and insist on making his anger the discussion, then you'd have been better off not answering it. So just recognize this and ignore.
> I think the only acceptable response is to answer his argument if you can read it.
When indulging in a discussion with others, one has to realize that the universe of what people consider acceptable responses isn't limited to yours.
Yes, it's clear that's what you think. It's also the whole point of discussion here. Merely repeating it isn't supporting your perspective.
> If you can't handle a heated commenter and insist on making his anger the discussion, then you'd have been better off not answering it. So just recognize this and ignore.
He is the one who brought the anger into the discussion, and thus it became part of the discussion. Not addressing it is a symptom of not handling it.
Do understand: Until about a decade ago, I thought like you. It caused me all kinds of headaches in the real world, and so I decided to study what an effective conversation. I took a multi-day course, as well as read several books on it.
All, without exception, point out that failure to address the emotional content is a bad idea and one of the reasons conversations become ineffective.
Decel:
- Potentially reduces investor appetite for funding big labs.
- More risk of powerful AI getting in bad hands -> more regulation.
Accel:
- More competition so big labs can't rest on laurels.
- More research in open, so all labs can accrete advancements faster.
I feel like open-source = acceleration has a much more clear argument. (and how bad would deceleration be in any case?)