[qlte]

What would the COVID pandemic market have been before COVID existed, and what information would have been available to steer the market towards a useful prediction?

“Will there be another coronavirus mutation resulting in a pandemic in 2005, 2006, 2018, 2019…” doesn’t seem like it would have been helpful, except in the like two month or so window after detection and the WHO announcement when alarm bells were already going off but it still hadn’t diffused into popular consciousness yet.

[fwipsy]

Knowing whether a major pandemic has a 2% chance vs. 0.2% chance per year has major policy implications. Just like the difference between a 100-year floodplain and a 500-year floodplain has important insurance implications, even though you probably won't get flooded on any given year.

[Ferret7446]

It was quite clear covid was potentially a danger months before the "full outbreak". There were short news articles "in the margins" about a disease in Wuhan, with conspiracy theorists talking it up. It would plausibly have given us a month early notice. Hard to say how much that would have helped, but it might have improved the total outcome somewhat.