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by fwipsy 2 days ago
Did you watch the podcast? I didn't, but I think it's unfair to judge the author's true position on prediction markets based only on the hook.

The current admin has bungled better ideas than prediction markets.

1 comments

Gambling isn't some brilliant new idea, even if you rename it. I understand the technical distinction trying to be made, but seriously, it's gambling.

No one "bungled" anything. They just aren't being prosecuted..yet.

Sometimes gambling has some social value then. Isn't trading on the stock market gambling? Do you also support abolishing the stock market? What about issuing loans to someone with poor credit?
> Do you also support abolishing the stock market?

An anti-capitalist here: Yes... Oh heavens, yes. There are few things I desire more then to see all the stock markets in the world burn and never to be rebuilt. For me, people who make money at the stock market are participating in a systematic exploitation of the working classes. The siphoning of profits away from the workers who created them and earned them, and into the hands of the rich who contribute nothing, yet get everything.

What is the alternative? I'm sure there will still be trade of labor even in a socialist economy. This is assuming the labor theory of value is right, which it isn't, but I'll be charitable.
There is no need for an alternative. Trading stocks is not a necessary precondition for trading goods and services. Most of mine, and probably your businesses are done without anybody holding stocks in the stuff you are buying or selling. You can abolish the stock market, and pretty much everything stays the same... except the rich lose one (of many) avenues of systemic exploitation.
They'll just exploit you another way. At least those invested in the stock market actually have upward mobility from being poor or middle class, see Bogle heads or the FIRE movement.
Eh.

Stock markets serve(d) a function as vehicles to invest in risky ventures. In other words, a way to channel investment.

In the average case scenario, removing the stock market results in rich people being the ones who can afford to fund projects, and thus owning the outcomes.

The underlying case would be for wealth concentration and therefore power concentration. Addressing that would give the working class more options to fund projects or work, more than being the right type of person in the right network to land a rich patron.

Day trading is gambling. Buy-and-hold is investing. Algorithmic micro-trading is investing, despite looking like gambling. It's about whether there's an immediate dopamine release or not.
Properly regulated, couldn't the same distinction be applied to prediction markets?
Yes. Banning is also considered proper regulation
Except the author argued against regulation for prediction markets.
Did he argue for the current implementation, or only for deregulation relative to the previous state? As I understand it, up until recently they were totally illegal.
That is not so simple. The lottery is gambling, but the lottery doesn’t trigger the dopamine receptors like slot machine or scratch tickets (also gambling) do. This is because the response is too far behind the behavior in time (hours or days) for it to trigger the same addictive behavior as slot machines and scratch tickets where the behavior-response cycle is in seconds.

Now I don‘t consider day trading to be gambling (even though it is packaged and marketed to appeal to and sell to gambling addicts). For it to be gambling, it would need to be a game.

It is something far more sinister and far worse then gambling. I consider it exploitation, or more accurately capitalist exploitation. This also applies other aspects of the stock market, even the ones which are not marketed to exploit gambling addicts, including investment backed retirement funds [401(k) in the USA], index funds, and publicly traded companies. To me, all these things are equally bad (well actually the retirement funds may be the most sinister of the bunch) even though day trading might have the ugliest manifestation. These are all exploitation of the working class.

> Algorithmic micro-trading is investing, despite looking like gambling.

It's skimming.