[jdw64]

People always assume that others will use something with good intentions, but in practice, malice tends to take root before goodwill does.

[jameskilton]

And some things always are malicious, like "prediction markets", which is just gambling reworded to sound like something else.

This was never, ever going to end well. There is no good use of "prediction markets".

[tgma]

The uniquely problematic aspect of prediction markets is not really the personal aspects of gambling. There are plenty of speculative vehicles. The problem is it subverts natural incentive structures that society has evolved to reward, by introducing another incentive signal; one that sometimes can be many times bigger, thereby manipulating the natural, real-world, outcomes.

If you were playing in the World Cup in the lesser teams, very often betting+sabotage/plausible negligence would have been a more profitable enterprise for you than to actually do your best to win.

Stock markets have this problem too, but they are much more regulated, and even if manipulated by insiders, the blast radius is smaller and often auditable.

[crooked-v]

You're just describing the preexisting problems that led to bans and regulations on sports gambling.

[tgma]

Yes, just one obvious example -- extrapolate to general life. That said, ease of access and scale beyond a critical point can make it qualitatively different.

[fwipsy]

Some people gamble by trading stocks. Should we also abolish the stock market?

Prediction markets are meant to be the stock market but for events besides the value of a certain corporation. They were co-opted as a thin veneer of legitimacy over deregulated sports gambling. The concept itself theoretically has some value, however insignificant compared to the damage caused by the current policy.

[im3w1l]

Restricting retail trading of derivatives and short positions doesn't sound like the worst idea.

[avaer]

Not so much malice as greed and lack of empathy.