Early in terms of there being no sign of actual signs of decay of their business. It's less than a week since Google reported literally the highest quarterly profits by any public company ever[0]. This is while growing at 25% YoY, which is just insanely fast for a company that size.
[0] By net income. By operating income, still like top 5 to top 10 depending on how you interpret the numbers.
The market is forward looking. If you short when it's obvious to everyone, it will already be at the bottom. Clearly, shorting now or a few months ago would have been the correct move. The market has predicted that their outsized quarterly profits are the last they'll report for some time, hence the selloff.
Zoom out. Look at 5 yr chart then look at April 2025 could say the same thing.
Also when shorting you are betting against the machine of capitalism. It's like very rare and abnormal for today to be a GFC or Enron sort of day rather than a business as usual. You need a lot of skill to short a top 50 comompany. Anyway good luck.
[0] By net income. By operating income, still like top 5 to top 10 depending on how you interpret the numbers.