[ben_w]

> I’m probably illustrating your point but as a FSD fan

Half-and-half. I'm not denying that self driving cars (and LLMs) are improving, I'm comparing it against the standards set by the biggest proponents. But yes, I have heard basically the same thing you just wrote for the previous several major releases of FSD.

Where we agree is that, while you are a fan, you do explicitly give as an example of something you think it will never do, something very close to what Musk has promised:

  "Ultimately you'll be able to summon your car anywhere … your car can get to you. I think that within two years, you'll be able to summon your car from across the country. It will meet you wherever your phone is … and it will just automatically charge itself along the entire journey."

- Musk, in Jan 2016: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

(That said, I think Tesla's FSD will never get there, not that it's impossible. The way Musk is behaving, there's going to be a financial scheme named after him in whatever passes for a textbook in 20 years, and it won't be the positive kind of example).

[qwerpy]

What matters is the benefit it affords to drivers, not what "biggest proponents" say. Elon got overly excited in 2016, but for my day to day usage, I don't need it to self-charge on a drive across the country to get me. I need it to safely drive my family on my daily errands or weekend trips, which I now consider solved.

I'm mentally prepared for the next US administration to exact retribution on his companies, and I expect FSD will be neutered after that. Hopefully other car companies are able to catch up. I'm more of a self-driving fan than a Tesla fan, so as long as the thing works as well as what I have now, I'll be fine with it.

[ben_w]

> Elon got overly excited in 2016

Yes. He was before and remains so to this day, but he did so then, too.

> I need it to safely drive my family on my daily errands or weekend trips, which I now consider solved.

This is probably unwise. As with LLMs, the statistics suggest a spikiness in the intelligence, with it being mostly good but also sometimes still making some very odd mistakes that humans would essentially never make.

As with your other comment, you know that if it gets into a crash you're responsible; while you consider this a win, I suggest waiting until the company you buy the car from (in this case Tesla) puts their money where their mouth is on quality and takes liability for crashes due to the AI upon themselves.

(The Cybercab was supposed to be sans-steering-wheel and sans-pedals, which would be a sign of that level of confidence, but the ones spotted in the wild at least sometimes seem to come with the wheel, which suggests they're still not there yet: https://www.vehiclesuggest.com/cybercab-with-steering-wheel-... https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-news/real-tesla-cybercab-sp...)

> Hopefully other car companies are able to catch up.

From the stats I've seen, they're much closer to the goal, relatively smoother/less spiky all-round driving intelligence. They may not be as impressive at their best, but when they fail the failure modes are themselves much safer.

[qwerpy]

The data shows that FSD (supervised) is safer than human alone driving. Given that I value the well-being of my family, FSD (supervised) it is as often as possible. Separately from the data, it is just so nice to hit a button and sit back and relax for the entirety of the drive.

The usual HN nits at this point are that the data is unreliable/biased and that the way I’m using it isn’t supervised enough. I’ll admit to the latter. In my experience the mistakes tend to be navigational but I’ve seen a few of the “nearly drove through the lane closed gate” videos so I definitely keep a closer watch when there is complicated highway stuff going on. I also have my foot at the ready for when I go through the gate to my community, similar failure mode and about 1% of the time it forgets to wait for the gate to close and reopen.

I look forward to the other car companies catching up, competition and more options are good. Elon is a loose cannon, so I need alternatives if Tesla ceases to be.

[ben_w]

I urge caution when examining statistics, as even with the best will in the world… well, the Datasaurus dozen was created for good reason: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datasaurus_dozen

Tesla have been claiming the stats show superiority of their AI vs. humans since at least 2016: https://techcrunch.com/2016/07/06/tesla-says-drivers-using-a...

The lesson from the Datasaurus should be to ask detailed questions, e.g.:

• exposure bias: is the AI used more or less in certain conditions, on certain kinds of roads

• sharpshooter: shouldn't need to ask this one of a public company, but given regular headlines: how many crashes happen a few seconds after it switches itself off?

• driver demographics: most severe accidents by humans are due to impairment or being a new driver, is the AI actually better than an experienced-and-not-impaired driver?

• the nature of the failure modes: as a cyclist I've been hit by a car that stopped at a junction and pulled out into me, this was not fun but no serious injury; this is very different to any of the highway speed fatalities.

> Separately from the data, it is just so nice to hit a button and sit back and relax for the entirety of the drive.

No doubt. Myself, this is why I have been happy to live in a city with a good public transport network and use that instead of driving.

> I look forward to the other car companies catching up

My point is that they are in some important senses already ahead. Less optimised for the headline, more optimised for the real dream.

[qwerpy]

Good points about the stats. I know the answers to some of those questions, but at some point it's so hard to get apples to apples comparisons for these things. So I did a "paranoid super-supervised" usage of FSD for a year or two to learn its failure modes and get used to its reliability or lack thereof. Then combined with the (allegedly truthful) FSD stats, I came to my own conclusion which is that FSD is ready for my everyday needs. (nit: FSD can change version to version and potentially regress. some temporary paranoia is justified after major changes)

Usable public transport would be nice. It was unusable for various reasons where I used to live (Seattle/Bellevue) and is pretty much non-existent where I currently live (Socal / Orange County), but everything else about the location is perfect for me, so I'm willing to give that up.

> they are in some important senses already ahead. Less optimised for the headline, more optimised for the real dream.

Nice! I look forward to trying them out when they are available and working here. Rivian claims they'll achieve it next year, and one of their form factors (R1S) is perfect for my family so they'll be my next option if things go downhill with my Teslas.