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by ben_w
6 days ago
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Agreed on Starship. Orbital rings… I think are more like a century or two. Physical possibility and affordability will I think take only 25-100 years[0], the rest being politics getting to the point nobody shoots it up. [0] if you believe Alphabet's estimates about how fast SpaceX can reduce costs, estimated in the context of orbital data centers, it would only take 10. I think this is overoptimistic, as the Alphabet paper assumed 370,000 tons[1] getting launched as the process for reducing costs, and I think Musk runs out of other people's money before that point. [1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2511.19468 |
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