[Gualdrapo]

All I know is that trying to get a job now is being way more brutal than before. The closest thing I got this month was a scam email from an alleged "independent global senior recruiter" "currently supporting a confidential search for a company developing AI-powered digital products". The made-with-ai smell was all over the place, the company in mention allegedly was adobe, and am pretty sure they got my email from the "who wants to be hired?" posts in here.

[soupfordummies]

I wonder if we’re actually in like a shadow recession and companies are just using AI as an excuse to do layoffs or hire less.

Idk there’s a lot of diff variables and it’s complicated of course, I really don’t think it’s because “AI’s taking the jobs” tho.

[alephnerd]

For tech it truly depends on your geo.

If you are in Western Europe, then yes it's because of a shadow recession.

If you are in Seattle, then it's because the larger employers are shifting headcount to the Bay or abroad.

If you are not in the Bay, NYC, or Seattle, it's because domestic nearshoring during 2018-23 failed (eg. Cisco, NetApp, and Google in RTP)

I've written about this before on here [0][1]

[0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45466975

[1] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47174561

[shivpat23]

Unemployment rate and labor participation rate don’t support this.. probably true for software engineering but not the broader economy afaict

[irishcoffee]

Uh, wat?

Edit: for clarification, it’s never been worse. See link.

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/labor-market-data...

[Izkata]

Labor force participation rate was worse during the 2020 lockdowns and the entire recorded period before 1976: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

Unemployment rate has been going down for the past couple months, even though it was already lower than it has been for most of the period since the 70s: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

That Yahoo page mentions these as a source, but it doesn't link them, presumably because they don't match its claims.

That said, both going down implies the people without jobs have stopped looking for jobs (which drops them from the unemployment rate calculation). Question then is why have they stopped and how are they getting by?

Or perhaps it's the other way around, new kids entering working age and not bothering to look for a job while living off their parents, and people in retirement age who won't retire for whatever reason?

[Balinares]

Charity / fundraisers, one-off under the table gigs for acquaintances, pooling scant resources with more roommates, skipping meals... It's been really bleak over there lately. The number of survival fundraisers I've seen floating around has exploded.

[consensus1]

Sample size of 1 here, but my inbox is absolutely overflowing with recruiters. Sample size of more than 1 - the SWE who were laid off recently from my company are finding new jobs quickly.

Certainly the job market is more brutal than it was during the covid mass hiring spree, but it doesn't seem any worse than historical average. My view is anecdotal but I haven't seen any real data on the other side of it either.

[pdimitar]

Which business areas, programming languages / frameworks, which geo areas?

[consensus1]

US fintech. Language / framework agnostic.

[pdimitar]

I imagine this comes with some credentialism and networking i.e. companies ask each other whether person X is good? If so, I can see how easily the current difficulties in the labor market can be overcome that way.

[consensus1]

I don't have a CS degree, and I am talking about inbound recruiter emails, so it's not credentialism or networking. I did get my current job via networking though, but networking in this industry isn't really any more than "I used to work with this guy and he is good so give him an interview."

[pdimitar]

Yeah well, I don't even have that last part so great that you have it. I am sure it helps quite a bit.

[Brotkrumen]

More anecdata, but around me, the opportunities for recent grads and self-taughts are less than try were.

If I was to bet, it seems that tasks that were given to new hires are now done by senior engineers and a prompt.

A collegue claims that the difference between an MBA and a mediocre compsci grad have disappeared due to vibe coding, so the compscis grads feel the job market is tougher because of increased competition.

All I know is that it's super hard to get junior devs to not be junior anymore because they don't have the opportunity anymore to learn on easy tasks.

[alephnerd]

> the opportunities for recent grads and self-taughts are less than try were.

It's also becuase the T20 CS/CE/ECE/EECS programs now graduate around 15-20K students a year.

If you don't attend a target you are going to have a hard time landing a job.

If you didn't do CS/CE/EE/ECE/EECS at MIT, CMU, Stanford, Cal, UIUC, GT, UT Austin, Purdue, UW, UCLA, UCSD, Ivies, UChicago, NYU, UNC Chapel Hill, Duke, USC, UMinn, UMich, the Military academies or you weren't a Vet, it's hard to justify hiring. Throw in 1-2 well regarded regional schools in the mix and that becomes your entire hiring pipeline.

Geography also plays a role - early career remote work is over. You will have to start your career in the Bay or NYC, and maybe Austin and Seattle.

[newsomix9xl]

The job market is a fickle mistress.

Companies are harvesting domestic salaries, possibly offshoring and slashing jobs, and blaming AI.

They want you to not oppose their offshoring, or stunning executive salaries, or God forbid join a union.

Who ya gonna blame? AI.

[Terr_]

Scam applicants are problem too.

I don't think it's too hyperbolic to say that every single problem in hiring/job-seeking boils down lack of trust.