[dundarious]

Radars and bases along the path of travel from Iran to Israel have been progressively degraded. Various interceptor types also have low stockpiles at present. I'm absolutely not an expert keeping well-informed, but my understanding is that Jordan's recent losses mean much of the path is now relatively clear of air defenses, and Israel would have to mount most/all defenses from their own territory for the first time. But Israel is at-present not engaging in the war, preferring to let US do the work, as a minister recently stated. Regardless, it may be attacked, depending on IDF actions in Lebanon.

[dmix]

Iran also isn't hitting Israel because they know Israel will go after Tehran and the regime more directly. They were the ones to target the Basij police, industrial and steel plants, government buildings etc. America is mostly constraining itself to bombing the coast and military assets, with a focus on the strait.

That plus most of Iran's attacks on Israel didn't do anything and likely still won't. Which is why Iran focused on the weaker gulf states even when Israel was involved.

[rbanffy]

> Which is why Iran focused on the weaker gulf states even when Israel was involved.

Also, Israel will not abandon (or be abandoned) by the US, but the others might want to cut their losses if supporting the US becomes costlier than being neutral.

The game being played is extremely interesting, with high stakes and no margin for error. Too bad people die.

[dmix]

Both Kuwait and Bahrain did airstrikes in Iran today with intelligence and air support from UAE. The gulf states being low risk targets will likely be a short term thing for Iran in the long run as well. https://x.com/WSJ/status/2080693251682795705

[rbanffy]

The US will not be able to sustain a military presence in the Middle East for much longer. Dedollarisation is happening and when it hits a tipping point, they won’t be able to sustain their current debt financing and interest on treasury bonds will rise sharply to compensate for that.

Won’t be pretty, as no empire has ever fallen peacefully.

[sudosysgen]

Iran has recently demonstrated the ability to execute accurate strikes in Jordan. If it can do so in Jordan, it can do so in Israel once Israeli air defences are similarly degraded. Doubly so because many missiles meant for Israel were intercepted by Jordan.

Iran knows Israel won't stop itself from attacking for too long. So they are going to wait until that point and they are likely going to try the same targeting methodology to paralyze Israeli airbases. If they manage to do so, they will be able to significantly reduce the US/Israeli strike tempo and to be more successful using drones, not even missiles.

[dmix]

This assumes Iran is maintaining consistent stockpiles and still has the capability of large attacks, including their fancier missiles which can avoid SAM systems. It's been well reported the number of drones/missiles Iran fired has consistently decreased. Israel and the US destroyed most of their missile factories so Iran is going to be conservative with how they use them.

At the peak Iran fired 650 missiles at Israel and only killed 28 people, mostly from hitting a single residential building. These days Iran is only firing small salvos into gulf states and only 20-30 drones at a time. I'd be surprised if they could pull off 2025 numbers when they fired a hundred at Israel.

[overfeed]

> It's been well reported the number of drones/missiles Iran fired has consistently decreased.

One way of interpreting that statistic is that they are running out of munitions. Another way is to consider that stockpiles are not running low, but the initial response was a collection of high-burn, uncoordinated, decentralized tactical actions after an attempted decapitation-strike disrupted top-down C&C. Now that the fog of war has cleared, and communication has been restored, a more strategic regime is now in effect.

[sudosysgen]

Iran has been getting consistent impacts on US bases in Jordan essentially every day for the past few weeks, and they are well defended.

At the end of the day Iran has more missiles than the US has interceptors. So when you get to the point when you're talking about running out, they just don't need to launch big salvos anymore.

[expedition32]

The political party I am a member off wanted a total arms embargo on Israël including anti air defense. (It didn't go anywhere ofcourse. But that a mainstream party is fed up with Israël is quite revolutionary).

Although what has changed is that Israël is no longer getting guns for free they need to pay for it same as everyone else. Progress!

[dundarious]

Yes this is essentially what I was thinking. And there have been repeated estimates about Iranian stockpiles that have proven completely wrong. I think they have been able to manufacture throughout the war.

[ChrisMarshallNY]

I would be worried about staying in the Jumeirah Burj Al Arab, these days.

I suspect that Iran knows that going after Dubai would upset a lot of American (and Sunni) billionaires.

[thisislife2]

UAE paid Iran billions of dollars to halt strikes: Report - https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uae-paid-iran-billions-do... .

[ChrisMarshallNY]

Danegeld!

[illliillll]

The service might be a bit poor, given that Burj Al Arab has already been closed for months since Iran struck it in the beginning of March.

[ChrisMarshallNY]

Ah. Makes sense. I have been deliberately avoiding keeping up with that mess.

...which I now return to...

[DonnyV]

The north of Israel has been completely evacuated. But yeah Iran didn't do any damage. lol

[dmix]

The north of israel also wasn't evacuated for the recent Iran campaign. That was in 2024 and they didn't evacuate for the recent ground invasion they did in Southern Lebanon.

[spwa4]

... was at one point partially evacuated. It isn't currently, and hasn't been for years at this point.

You may be confused with southern Lebanon, which is.

[emosenkis]

You seem to be woefully uninformed on this subject. Far northern Israel was evacuated in 2023 and has long since moved on to reconstruction. No significant damage in the area was directly from Iran, it was all from Hezbollah (their proxy militia in Lebanon).