[arendtio]

I think the potential productivity gains are real, but they have a cumulative effect. Currently you can speed up the coding easily, but other tasks, like analysing logs in production for errors, still delay you. Once you add that capability, everything goes a little faster, but then you are being delayed by user acceptance testing; once you automate that, you are being delayed by requirements engineering, etc.

Every step is part of the journey of realising the productivity gains. If you want to, you can automate every step, and you won't just get a little faster. However, at the moment, the gains of being more productive when writing code are still eaten up by more time-consuming tasks like analysing bugs or having to solve organizational issues.

So it will take a while (and I think that is a good thing) until productivity gains are fully visible. For me, it is currently at work as if I had twice the amount of time I had in the past, because many of the repetitive tasks can be done much faster with AI. It is a bit like 60% of the tasks can be done in 10% of the time. But it already took me a few weeks to assemble MCP servers for many of the systems I use (in a responsible manner).

Even though I have a lot of fun building AI systems, I am very worried about the future of work, because I have the feeling that politics is busy with other drama instead of finding solutions for the time when corporations won't need human capital anymore.