[trhway]

For the last 20+ years i was really relaxed about tech industry - the fat cash positions maintained by the companies as a lesson from the early 2000-s crash (when companies were running out of cash and failing or severely downsizing, etc.) almost guaranteed that the tech will easily weather any trouble times - and that was clearly demonstrated in 2008 and in 2020.

Now i'm starting to get scared - these cash positions are basically gone if matched against the new debt and various creative financing taken on for the AI buildouts. That looks a lot like 2000 - very promising tech everybody is piling money in. And i'm sure that several years later it will provide several decades of tremendous success like Internet did in the last 20 years. It is just those few initial choppy years of the hockey stick trough that we may be coming upon and that many may not survive not having that fat cash position anymore, and thus those years may happen to be very painful for the tech and for the whole economy.

25 years ago there were a lot (estimates put even as high as 95%) of dark fiber left as a result of the dotcom buildout and crash. It was successfully put back into action several years later. I wonder whether we will have similar dark datacenters in a few years.