| The four scenarios: - "A humiliated Russia, lingering on the periphery of the West." - the result if Russia backs down in Ukraine. - "Russia ends up in China’s orbit." - except that China doesn't really want Russia. China already has a big northwest that's only marginally useful, and doesn't need a buffer state.
Or Russian technology. Or Russian manufacturing. Or Russian military support. - "Fragmentation" - many of the oblasts break off, especially along Islamic borders.
Decades of local wars. Who gets the nukes? - "Fortress: closed, mobilised, in permanent siege." Like North Korea. Those are all depressing options. Read this from a Russian perspective. In the Russian view, Russia is entitled to be a world power. It's a huge country, stretching from St. Petersburg to Vladivostok, even though it only has 140 million people. Russia has fought off invaders, from Napoleon to Hitler, and won. Being reduced to a regional player, like Brazil (221 million people) does not fit the Russian mindset. Obama once referred to Russia as a "regional power", and that insult has not been forgotten in Russia. Melnichenko is very worried about nuclear war. It could happen all too easily. Both Putin and Trump have nuclear release authority on their own. The premiers of the USSR after Stalin did not. He sees a conflict possibly getting to the point where conventional warfare threatens the existence of a nuclear power, and points out that stopping at the edge of annihilation cannot be relied upon. That's a very real fear. |