[matwood]

An AI collapse would represent a generational buying opportunity for companies like Meta, Google, and MS. It would be bumpy for a bit while things unwind, but eventually all this FCF they have been dumping into AI would start dropping to the bottom line instead. It's like when Meta stopped dumping money in Reality Labs, but on a much larger scale.

[throwaway85825]

For it to be a buying opportunity would require the mega corps to continue growing post bubble pop. This is questionable given how large they already are.

[oblio]

And a lot of their apparent growth post 2022 is AI, but most likely at subsidized, unsustainable prices. So demand that isn't real.

Plus apparently at least for Google, but from other news sources I've seen, at least Amazon and Oracle have basically mortgaged their future in other business units to fund AI, so it's likely many of these other business units will underperform (or already are).

So lots of new debt, unverifiable growth that could be shady, coupled with a slow down of their other businesses could be a really bad combo.