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by FrustratedMonky 5 days ago
Drones really changed the equation more than Covid. Autonomous F-16's already can win against all human pilots. This would have been big 20 years ago. Now the cheap drones make it not the biggest deal anymore.
2 comments

> Autonomous F-16's already can win against all human pilots.

In a dogfight?

As I understand it, they done this in simulation, and the human pilots did not fare well.

I don't know of the computer aircraft were able to fly beyond human limits (i.e. they don't black out) or not. If the computers can actually fly to what the airframe is capable of, they would have a distinct advantage over the human pilots.

They did a small set of tests with one Pilot IIRC?
I think they did it in simulation with several.

In any case, dogfighting is commonly done because it's great training but in most cases, you expect most Air to Air combat being flinging missiles at each other.

s/most/all/g
Exactly.
The simulator is not the aircraft.
The first time an airline pilot flies a new aircraft type in the real world they fly it with a plane full of passengers. All the training up to that point is done in a simulator.

Now that first flight is with an experienced training captain but the point is the simulator is good enough that the FAA has signed off on using that as the primary training device.

It's been this way for at least 25 years.

Many of the crash reports from the likes of Mentor Pilot on YouTube call out insufficient type-experience as a cause of accidents. Sometimes it's "the same" type, but the manufacturers manipulated the situation, the changes mean unfamiliarity and that leads to deaths.

Not giving pilots live training on new types is for financial reasons. It doesn't cause more deaths than the cost differential between training and compensation allow for.

no airline will take the risk. they will have a check ride, with an instructor.
Simulator tech has come a long way. I wouldn't say a simulator invalidates the result.
with respect to assessing tactics, it is very close.
With respect to assessing whether an AI-controlled aircraft using only available onboard sensors and datalinks can defeat a manned aircraft in BFM, it's not even in the same ZIP code. You've never flown BFM, have you? I have.
I yield to your experience.
Is that hard to believe? It's got to be one of the easiest situations for AI to win in. You probably don't even need any fancy modern AI; I would have thought MPC would do most of the job.
human pilots have physiological constraints that AI doesnt.

onboard computers are not immune to G's but have a substantially higher threshold until physical mechanisms fail due to strain.

Which cheap drones? Specifically which systems are currently out-competing F-16s in air to air combat in either trials or combat?
You don't need F-16s at all if you have cheap drones. Why send an expensive plane with a pilot to bomb some country if you can send a drone that costs as little as a basic SUV instead?
Exactly, that is the point. Not that a drone is outcompeting an F-16. But a hundred cheap drones can definitely get by a F-16 and hit their targets.

An F-16 can't get them all. The goal of war isn't to dog fight, its to bomb, and the F-16 can't stop them.

Pretty much. Drones that disabled /checks notes ~200 barges and tankers in red/black sea in last two weeks cost about $10mil total.

Cost of all the drones that burned down half of russian Oil infrastructure totals less than couple F-35s.

And yet the Russian war machine pushes on.

Opening up ways to pressure the Russian economy in a war of choice does equate to achieving decisive battlefield advantages.

There's a reason those drones hit oil refineries and not steel works.

That's not to undermine how the strategic environment has changed, but to imagine that now - after the change - it'll obviously stay that way forever is ridiculous.

Ukraine is not being destroyed by unstoppable swarms of cheap drones which Russia is perfectly capable of producing. So clearly this story is more complicated.

>And yet the Russian war machine pushes on

Mostly on foot now. They tried using tanks today in Dobropillia, which was very rare and surprising! 28 (https://nitter.tiekoetter.com/NotWoofers/status/208005697904... didnt even know they had that many left and concentrated in one spot) destroyed in an ~hour, attack routed.

>Ukraine is not being destroyed by unstoppable swarms of cheap drones which Russia is perfectly capable of producing.

"At least 577 civilians were killed by short-range drones in Ukraine in 2025" https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/the-observers/20260221-...

They arent unstoppable to Ukrainians _now_. Even mighty US just gave up its bases letting Iran destroy hundreds of millions of infrastructure (and kill base staff) with zero attempts at defense. Afaik only Baghdad base has a C-Ram that actually works against flying lawnmovers.

Yes, its more complicated, horses for courses etc. But the idea one needs a jet or cruise missiles to bomb an adversary is an outdated one and whoever clings to it will pay dearly. Its probably a matter of time before Iran tries mass drones launched off a container ship into continental US with zero resistance.

Cheap drones are only effective against soft targets. Many high priority targets are not soft. Even Ukraine invests in expensive systems to defeat harder targets.