[danesparza]

Ah - near the bottom where he is disclosing his own bias. Got it.

So do you disagree that AI companies are in very large amounts of debt? And do you also disagree that debt will have real consequences (and one of those consequences might be either the lights going out or a buyout or merger)?

[sho]

Tell me, when the dot com bubble burst, and all those debt-laden companies collapsed and had buyouts and mergers, was the internet turned off?

[danesparza]

Not at all. And to be honest, I don't hear the original author asserting that all AI will go away.

But if you have a ChatGPT plan and OpenAI is bought by another company (because they are insolvent) ... do you honestly think you will be able to continue using your service without a significant price increase?

[sho]

I suppose that would be up to the new owner? How would I know what happens to their services? You shouldn't conflate AI-the-technology with OpenAI-the-company. I'm super bullish about the tech, couldn't care less about a specific company. I mean, I hate Oracle like any other sane person, but that doesn't mean I hate databases.

I'm very confident that AI will continue to be available no matter what happens, at reasonable prices. We don't have to guess - we know what the open source models take to run, the hardware, the electricity, everything. They are served at a profit today - no-one is subsidizing them. Anyone can run GLM5.2 or (soon) K3 etc - you have capex and opex, you can serve X tokens per second, you sell them at Y price, it's just maths.

AI is a technology, not a company or group of companies.

[watwut]

Internet existed before dot com bubble.

[sho]

And AI existed before, and will continue after, the rise and/or fall of any particular company.

[watwut]

LLM not really and when we say AI today, we mean LLM.

Dot com bubble was not about the internet. Internet only facilitated it.