[tedggh]

If hyperscalers flop, and there’s a good chance they will, memory and disk prices will crater. They are historically the most volatile asset in tech. If Samsung, Micron et al can’t sell to hyperscalers they will switch back to consumer, because they can’t just turn off a memory fab without losing billions.

[cowl]

only that is not so. disk prices maybe, the memory will not be available to consumers because it's a tech that makes sense only for datacenters full of GPUs and massive power/cooling. by now all fabs have converted to it, there might be a lot of HBM capacity freed but no consumer devices that can use it. retooling all fabs to produce consumer level memory will take a lot of time if they even do it at all instead of just pushing for consumers to rent datacenter capacity directly.

all three major remaining players in the mem sector have already tried in the past to collude for memory price fixing.

this is the first time I'm rooting for chinese chip tech to reach more or less parity.

[tedggh]

That switch will actually take a few months, technically speaking. What may delay it is manufacturers strategizing to avoid oversupply and trying to minimize their loses from all the investment in tooling they cannot longer repurpose. It will be a logistical and financial nightmare for them too.