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by bognition 6 days ago
Diversify! Historically, the average length of a recession has been 12-24 months. So set up a system whereby you won’t screw’s yourself over by selling when things are low, but instead you can weather the storm.

Build a rainy day fund. Determine how much cash you will need if you are out of a job and how long you think that will last, allocate some portion of that amount into low risk bonds. Russ way if you need cash you aren’t selling investments at a big loss.

If you have enough liquidity put some in real estate as a forced savings vehicle as it’s harder to liquidate than stocks. Then just sit out any coming storm.

1 comments

But diversify into what?

If we assume this takes down the US economy and bonds, what then? International bonds/stocks? Won't those also be too entangled? Precious metals?

If there's a big AI bust, there will be no escaping it. Like 2008, the entire economy will slow down. This time it might even end in a war. A well diversified portfolio e.g. index funds will weather the storm and recover.

Build your emergency fund first if you don't have one. 6-12 months of salary in cash or CDs. Then dollar-cost average into well diversified equities. Don't watch them day-to-day. You're concerned about their value in 20-30 years, not tomorrow.

Nobody can tell you what to diversify into without information about what you are concentrated in.

Sure, spread investments across stocks and bonds and treasuries from different markets.

But you can also diversify more broadly beyond economic capital to cultural and social capital. Learn new skills and build networks of generalized reciprocity with others before you (or they) need help.

> without information about what you are concentrated in.

They said cash.

Those gold guys have been decrying the collapse the US economy for 25 years now, so you'll be in good company.