[ilaksh]

I think you're mostly right, and there is still a lot of "cope" in this thread about how much he needed to guide it.

But I would say that in some ways it's already obviously superhuman. The reason I think it's lacking in some jagged ways still at the expert level is because although it's highly optimized to be incredibly capable in many domains, it still doesn't have quite the same raw capacity for complexity in understanding one problem that humans do.

I believe that LLMs (really should be called VLMs for most of them) can still get much larger, and that will push the absolute complexity level and general IQ way over human level.

They are maxing out at like 5 or 10 trillion parameters right now. I believe we will see 50 and 100 trillion parameter models and models with large portions of that active. It will round out the jaggedness and probably more than double the raw intelligence that a human can achieve. It's not a linear scaling but who knows what the limit is and can go significantly higher with the same architecture I think given continued improvements in training and hardware scale.