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by dhruvyads 10 days ago
For example predicting whether a government infra project (california rail, etc) will complete under budget and within stated timelines. If the probability of this happening is low on prediction markets, corrective action can be taken. More generally, I think prediction markets can significantly improve capital efficiency by being a leading indicator of misallocation.
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You can also imagine using such prediction markets to incentivize speed + proper allocation by pre-purchasing "Yes" and awarding these shares as part of the involved people's compensation.