[w1ntermute]

> My question is will it continue to be the case that the largest consumers of media continue to be those who actually pay most once you have a generation who've been bought up with torrenting as their primary method of consumption?

This is a very important question to keep in mind. Forget about when the economy is bad, like the last couple of years. Even in the best of times, children have a very limited amount of money when it comes to purchasing media, and conversely have a relatively large amount of time. Torrents completely obviate the need for children to spend their allowance or money they worked for on content, and are easy for them to figure out with some time. Why spend that precious money on music or movies when you can spend it on a physical object instead?

The real problem is that once the torrenting habit is established, it's very difficult to break it. I'm talking about people under the age of 20 here - people who started torrenting at 12 or 13, when torrents first took off in the early 2000s. Contrary to what many people on this site suggest, torrenting is not that hard once you've learned how to do it when you have the free time (as a teenager), and viruses are not rampant, particularly if you're downloading only media (and not software). The only thing it's missing is live streaming, but with fast connections these days (which will only get faster over time), you can still get an HD movie in under half an hour.

[belorn]

It's an important question, but I don't know why we need to bunch together childrens purchasing habits, and adults. They are after all quite different markets.

I don't think we can ever get back where childrens money, saved over months and months of having a paper route, goes back to pay for culture, art and useful information (programs). There is also a question if its morally right to deny children of culture, art and useful information, on the basis if they can pay for it. Currently, schools are the primary actor in bridging the gap between rich children, and poor ones, but its not a long term solution.

For adults, its a complete different question, one which usually ends up on the question of convenience, price and opportunity. Afterall, Wallmart will always sell DVD's and games, even if copyright would go away. They also sell bottled water, and in some places, air.

Torrenting and wallmart dvd's do not directly compete for the same market group. In same way, streaming provide a convenience that torrenting do not. Add channels with preselected entertainment, and we are talking about quite different experience between streaming and torrenting.

If you are a person who careful select what you want to view before hand, and got time to prepare downloads, and do not impulsive buy DVD's at stands, then yes you might be a person who would rather torrent than buy (and thus get a superior product without drm). On other hand, that kind of person is much more likely to spend money on independent movies, on cinemas and expensive collector boxes with additional items like props and books.

[w1ntermute]

> It's an important question, but I don't know why we need to bunch together childrens purchasing habits, and adults. They are after all quite different markets.

Because children eventually become adults. So the purchasing habits of those who are children now will become the purchasing habits of adults in the future.

> In same way, streaming provide a convenience that torrenting do not. Add channels with preselected entertainment, and we are talking about quite different experience between streaming and torrenting.

This is exactly the kind of misconception that I'm talking about. Most HNers grew up before torrents became hugely popular, and thus don't really understand their convenience. For those born after ~1995, services like Netflix are not that convenient compared to torrents. Not only does the service require a credit card to sign up for (requiring parental approval), torrents are just not that hard once you're used to them. Learning how to use torrents is a one-time investment of time, after which you're good to go forever.

> If you are a person who careful select what you want to view before hand, and got time to prepare downloads

And I already explained this. You can get the equivalent content from torrents in <30 minutes. 30 minutes is not that big of a wait (or if you get it in SD, like much of the stuff on Netflix, <10 minutes). Moreover, once you get used to it, it's not a big deal.

[henrikschroder]

> Because children eventually become adults. So the purchasing habits of those who are children now will become the purchasing habits of adults in the future.

No, as an adult I have a lot more money than time, so buying a game I want over Steam is much more preferable than torrenting it and finding a working crack. I know how to pirate games, it's just that I don't want to spend the time and I have the money.

So I don't think it's habit-forming, unless you're a compulsive hoarder that just downloads ALL THE WAREZ because you can, but then you have other problems...

[w1ntermute]

Like I said before, there's a distinction between software and other forms of content, such as media. Games have a significantly greater value when purchased through Steam instead of pirated. Not only do you get multiplayer/community features, but the install process is much easier (than with a disc as well), and you get automatic updates. I would consider Steam the exception, not the rule, when it comes to gaming. And I also don't think this applies nearly as much to other media.

[jiggy2011]

True, but that is mainly because steam has better usability.

If pirate sites weren't so dispersed and worried about being shut down all the time someone would have probably developed a system that searches a game database, downloads a torrent and auto installs it with the crack in a single click.

It's lucky I guess that pirates don't seem to care about usability that much.

Legit games on Steam also have the advantage that the multiplayer is more likely than a pirate game where the crack breaks as soon as an update is put out and the game dev actively tries to lock pirates out.

[Tyrannosaurs]

Maybe with games but for movies, books and music there's little knowledge required to pirate them, almost no delay compared to purchasing (in both cases you have to search and download) and when downloaded they're utterly indistinguishable from the "legitimate" version.

A colleague this morning was talking about streaming sites where for him one of the benefits is that he can be watching the movie faster than if he owned the DVD. You can make your legitimate purchase as fast as you like but when streaming and downloading is that quick and easy, you're not going to get it to the point that the legitimate mechanisms offers a significant convenience advantage and is anyone really going to hand over cash for be watching in 20 seconds instead of 60 seconds?

For anything mainstream where it's widely available the cash rich time poor argument really doesn't hold up.

[belorn]

Lets put ourself in the shoes of a adult worker. S/he just have worked a whole day, drove 30-45m, picked up a pizza, and just now sat down in the couch to see "something".

Now lets force that person to decide what they would like to see, and then wait 30m. Even if it was 10m, the question of what to see is as much of an issue as the wait.

[Dylan16807]

If you can 'pick up' a pizza presumably you preordered, right? Connect to the web interface of your torrent app and preorder the media you want.

There are also programs to torrent a file in order if you've managed to run out of all other media and have no subscriptions.

[jiggy2011]

True, I think that the perceived barrier to entry for using torrents is much higher than the actual barrier.

If somebody were to release a TV set top box that used the pirate bay as the back end they would sell millions overnight.