[mullingitover]

> the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest.

It'll obviously be China, and they won't need the bleeding edge of lithography tech to make it happen. Every Chinese smartphone will have something like Sonnet 5, along your car (well, not those of us in the US, but we'll look longingly at pictures of them while we drive whatever the government decides we're allowed to drive in Fortress America).

Give it ten years and your smart litterbox from Temu will be running its own local model.

[adventured]

China won in desktop PCs? Nope.

China won in cloud services? Nope, not even close. They had to clone AWS just to try to keep up.

China won in mobile? Nope. Although they're very competitive there.

China won in search? Nope. Baidu who?

China won in ecommerce? Nope. Their dominance is overwhelmingly domestic.

China won in software? Nope. Windows is US. Android is US. iOS is US. MacOS is US. Linux is US/Europe/Global. Look at the top 50 largest software companies.

China won in silicon? Nope. Look at the top 50 companies.

China won in .... India and Latin America can manufacture iPhones now.

But sure, China's the obvious winner this time. Good luck.

[mullingitover]

India and Latin America doing some final assembly is kind of a whimper of a counterpoint.

Most of this litany is trivially refuted by pointing out that roughly 40% of the world's declared 5G Standard Essential Patents were developed in China. The only reason they don't completely dominate telecom globally is the panicked invocation of national security fears to erect emergency trade barriers.

"China won in ecommerce? Nope. Their dominance is overwhelmingly domestic."

Their domestic ecommerce market eclipses the US and the next several biggest markets combined. You can argue protectionism, but then you have to face the reality that the US is doing its own flailing protectionism today.

Generally, this is an embarrassing category error of an argument. Running models on ASICs, IoT devices, and EVs are infrastructure and hardware plays: areas where China is inarguably so good that it's a problem.