[hadlock]

I've had 2b models give a plausible Paris vacation itinerary. A tools-capable 12b and especially 30b model from 2026 is certainly capable of producing passable results. I was demonstrating the qwen 3.6 27b model I stood up last week to my wife and it gave her a passable Moroccan Chicken recipe. With tool calling (search) they're quite good.

[josephcooney]

I was on a long international flight recently with no internet and Google AI Edge Gallery installed on my phone with a 2.5GB quantized version of Gemma 4 on it. I was able to chat to it for a while and get some information about my destination which all turned out to be true and good advice.

[alex43578]

With OpenAI having released 20 and 120B models a while back, I think they recognized that tiny models were never going to be a defensible income stream.

Any value will come from the largest models, and those largest models are unlikely to ever run on consumer hardware within their window of relevancy.

[vitally3643]

You're missing the point. You very rarely need the biggest and "best" model. This is psychology and nothing more, people always want the "best" and don't often consider "good enough".

Small models are good enough depending on your task. That's the point. A model you can run on your phone or laptop is an incredibly useful tool for a lot of problems even though it isn't the "best" theoretically possible model.

[Paradigma11]

How often do you need the task to turn out harder than you anticipate and the small model unexpectedly failing to change the calculation?

[alex43578]

You're missing the point: those small "good enough" models aren't monetizable and haven't been for months already. All of the value in LLMs is going to come from frontier models at a high cost to businesses/governments. It'll be the difference between next day air-mail of a contract and sticking a stamp on your christmas card to Grandma - nobody's making a profit on the christmas card.

[hadlock]

I suspect in 5 years everyone will have the equivalent of a 512gb mac mini running a 500b class open weight model for 98% of their tasks, shelling out to openai/anthropic for the other 2%. People who need higher end models will own the equivalent of 4 x 512gb mac mini running a 2.8T class open weight model. I don't know where OpenAI and Anthropic are going to get their revenue from to keep developing SOTA frontier models at that point.

[sdfefcxv]

Yep.

And firms will be kept in check with financials.

If your competitor starts using chinese models and delivers better earnings whilst you are spending more on american ones... hahaaha. Wait and see what happens.

You will be FIRED!

[applicative]

It’s AI talking about AI so cum grano salis, but my AI is saying I would need at least a half million dollar in hardware to run the newer high quality Chinese models with bemchmark-competitive force.

You can run a Moroccan chicken fragment on the cheap in homage to what you cannot run