[ben_w]

Baumol effect is my best guess. Nursing tracks the cost of labour, the tech is (so far) making a small fraction of the worldload a lot more efficient, but the bulk of the workload is not (yet) amenable to automation.

That said, I do hear people sometimes complaining that the administrators were fired to save money, and this just put all that administrative burden onto the doctors and nurses who weren't trained in it and didn't go into medicine to perform; if that's true, tech may be able to assist with reducing that burden?

[roryirvine]

The doctors vs administrators argument swings back and forth every 15-20 years or so. More (and better) tech might change things a bit but, in truth, it's mostly just a slightly different form of the "more administration" side of the debate.

But, actually, some of the tech programmes from the past decade have been effective - NHS Digital & NHSX, the NHS Spine, the work that's led to the Single Patient Record. All much smaller, simpler, and more agile than the gigantic, nightmarish NPfIT money pit of the 2000s. The post-Covid reorg, putting everything under NHS England, inevitably killed some of the momentum but there was real value created and people are doing their best to learn from the experience.

As you say, labour is the real cost driver - but a lot of that labour ought to be done under the banner of Social Care rather than the NHS. Of course, fixing Social Care isn't exactly simple, and will become almost impossible should the nativist right succeed in slashing the supply of care workers.