[bojan]

Russia's goal is direct annexation of about quarter of the Ukrainian territory and installing a lifelong puppet regime to control the other three quarters. Ukrainians stand to lose not just their voice and any semblance of economic prosperity, but also their very identity.

With the exception of extreme cases like Gaza, it doesn't get more binary than that.

[stasomatic]

I am from Ukraine, been stateside since the late '80s, but visited Kiyv and my hometown of Odessa once a decade ago. I am far removed. So many perished on both sides, but we can do nothing but stand by. Can't ask Ukraine to surrender, can't let Russia to get away with this, there is no RTB while VP is running the theater, while the dead are piling up. It's a forever war at this point. Tell me it's not and there is something to look forward to. My spouse is from Russia and can't even visit her homeland to see her aging parents. Semi-annual meetups in Turkey or the UAE, but nobody's getting younger.

[spacebanana7]

From Ukraine's perspective it's existential for sure. Russia however, just revises its objectives every few months according to how well/badly its prospects on the battlefield are looking.

[microtonal]

Isn't it more that they started changing objectives because their original objectives turned out to be unattainable?

I also think that for Putin it is pretty existential. Otherwise, they would have negotiated a temporary deal, took the pretty large amount of land that they had taken at the end of 2022. Work on another 'project' like Georgia for a few years, do a lot of disinformation campaigns in Europe in the meanwhile and then revisit Ukraine later. That would have a lot of benefits, like no reaming of Europe, no development of Ukraine's capabilities (resulting in a drastic drop in refinement capabilities), etc.

But he couldn't. It would make him look weak and would make him vulnerable to a coup. Continuing is the only way for him.

[spwa4]

Russia's goals have far evolved over the course of the war, and started out comically ridiculous, prompting a great many people to ask questions about the information "bubble" around Putin. Over the past year, I believe most people would agree Russia has lost a LOT of ground when it comes to their war aims, even if not that much territory.

2014: seize Crimea (success, although it no longer serves any purpose) and Sevastopol (total failure, Sevastopol can no longer serve the Russian black sea fleet, and when it comes to the other goal: keep NATO out of the black sea, it's an even bigger failure. Russia has lost control of the skies above the black sea completely and are losing control over the sea of Azov, by withdrawing air defenses. Now go look on the map where the sea of Azov is to see the magnitude of this failure), prevent Ukraine from approaching NATO and EU (complete failure is putting it very mildly), keep Ukraine unstable (succeeded, until Euromaidan revolution, ie. actually this is a failure)

2022: maintain control over Crimea (looks to be failing, as in Ukraine still controls Crimea's water supply), build a land bridge to Crimea (successfull, except that they can't use their land bridge for anything), seize control over Ukraine's government ("denazify" Ukraine), demilitarize Ukraine (as in Ukraine accepts no to have an army. Obviously total and complete failure), and prevent Ukraine and others from coming closer to NATO (obviously total failure, and not just in Ukraine)

In June 2026, ie. about 4 weeks ago, Russia once again confirmed these goals.

Oh and they were going to do this in 3 days. Then in 3 weeks. Then in 2 months. Then they stopped making predictions. Today is day 1608 of their 3-day attempt.

[SanjayMehta]

When did Russia ever state they would accomplish all this in 3 days?

[yurish]

I have not seen any Russian official making such statements. 3 days declarations were mostly done by various "analyst".

[applicative]

‘Russia’ is not a human subject and can say nothing, and this is obvious, so the question is framed with propagandistic intent.

The judgment was the basis of the invasion. Lukashenko and state TV did however say it; more interestingly the Biden administration - which had access to internal discussion and wrongly credited the cognition and rationality of Russian bureaucrats - also/ affirmed it.

In fact victory was assumed to have happened instantly: the famous widely mocked hundreds of miles of stalled trucks in the opening week contained //no military equipment//: it was all police equipment for managing recalcitrants in Kiev. Why? Because the war was ‘always already’ won; it was just a question of taking possession. The basic structure they falsely thought they had imposed everywhere did more or less materialize and work in the SE

[spwa4]

For example: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/speci...

[SanjayMehta]

Says RUSI. A British agency.

[tharmas]

Well their choice is as a USA/EU Vassal state or Russian one.

I'd say neither is an attractive choice.