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by meowface 9 days ago
You can use that retroactive logic about any hard problem though. Unsolved murder cases, math, theoretical physics.

If tons of smart humans try for years and fail and then an LLM tries for a few weeks or hours and succeeds, the implications are clear. And these are by far the dumbest LLMs will ever be.
1 comments
QuesnayJr 8 days ago
The retrospective view is important, though. In retrospect, these problems weren't that hard. (The unit distance graph problem was the hardest.) There are some problems that still seem hard, even when we know the answer. Nobody thinks that Fermat's last theorem is easy, even though now know it to be true.

Before AI, it was pretty rare that a problem that turned to be unexpectedly easy, so mathematicians thought they were pretty good judges of it. (The last pre-AI example I can remember is the Gaussian correlation conjecture.) So thanks to AI we have learned that we were overconfident in our ability to judge difficulty.

If a truly major problem falls, like the Riemann hypothesis, and the proof turns out to be 10 pages, then the lesson will be a different one -- mathematicians are bad at math, and they should turn to more natural domains for them, like folding and putting away towels.

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betafj 8 days ago
If some LLM is able to come up with a simple proof of Fermat's Last Theorem (a solution that Fermat himself could come up with) in the future, would you still say that Fermat's Last Theorem is hard?
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QuesnayJr 8 days ago
No. I would say that it was easy, and that something had gone terribly wrong with math research that we missed it.
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meowface 8 days ago
This would seem to lead to absurd implications. What if in, say, 20 years, an AI is able to independently prove nearly everything important in under an hour, including the Riemann hypothesis, with no contamination from other proofs? (Let's say it's also free to write and run arbitrary code, as well.)

Whether it's 5, 10, 20, 50 years, obviously the takeaway cannot be "something had gone terribly wrong". The takeaway would be the smartest humans were never close to the theoretical intelligence and wisdom ceiling and never could've been. This will one day seem obvious in retrospect. There's no reason evolution by natural selection would've landed any species near such a ceiling.

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QuesnayJr 8 days ago
That's not at all the scenario you proposed. You proposed a simple proof that Fermat himself would understand. We have developed a tremendous amount of math since Fermat, and if none of it was relevant that would be damning. If there's a simple proof of the Riemann hypothesis that Riemann would understand, then I would say the same thing.

That doesn't rule out an AI that makes a genuine breakthrough. If there's some new branch of math that no human has even imagined that answers the Riemann hypothesis, then that is exactly how I would expect it to go.

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