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by aurareturn 13 days ago
Besides the AI shortage, Moore’s Law has ended which means in order to get faster chips, you have to use bigger dies, fancier packaging, more cooling, more power. This increases costs.

A PS6 really doesn’t increase much over the PS5 even without the AI shortage. You’re probably getting doubled the performance at best, which barely makes a noticeable difference in gaming when PS1 to PS2 had 180x better GPU.

I think the next leap has to come from mostly software and I think we will move towards a world in which most/all of the rendering is done by an AI. See Google’s Genie3.
2 comments
mfro 13 days ago
The reality is more along the lines of traditional rendering with special ML models inferring and splicing in generated frames. Framegen is already in most modern games and Nvidia has made it a driver level option for many unsupported ones. In case you haven’t used it — it is black magic. Studios will have almost no motivation to optimize if framegen can be perfected, and it’s not far.
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saghm 13 days ago
Hopefully Nvidia doesn't try to bundle a bunch of slop to completely change faces of characters with AI into future framegen updates (claiming that it's in control of the developers but then not even checking with the devs of the game they put into the trailer for it) like they did last time...

https://www.techradar.com/computing/gpu/nvidias-ceo-goes-ful...

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SapporoChris 13 days ago
Your conclusion that "... in order to get faster chips, you have to use bigger dies, fancier packaging, more cooling, more power.", is really not supported by the ending of Moore's law.

Moore's law is the observation that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years, with minimal increase in cost.

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aurareturn 13 days ago 

  Moore's law is the observation that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years, with minimal increase in cost.
Exactly. That is no longer true.
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ahartmetz 12 days ago
In any case, hardware progress has slowed to a crawl. Maybe a new console every 10 years makes sense now.
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