[idiotsecant]

It's clear that while LLM progress is continuing, it's at something like a linear rate, or slower.

The singularity requires exponential improvement. That's not happening. Maybe we will develop something that sets that off, but there's no indication of that right now.

[dinfinity]

Yet. If the exponential improvement had already started, the singularity would already have happened or happen very, very soon.

The logic has always been that the AI would have to have significant tools and agency to do self-improvement for the singularity to occur. This is exactly the thing that a bunch of the AI labs are working on hard right now.

[daveguy]

Sorry, but labs working hard doesn't make non-polynomial problems suddenly polynomial.