[jdw64]

Everyone feels it's a bubble, but the key question is when it will burst. People keep pointing this out in so many places, from Closed loops to everything else. I wish someone would just predict when that moment will come

I've seen so many of these articles that I'm actually looking forward to a YouTube video or article that talks about a techno-feudal future, where API tenant farmers become the scenario if AI companies succeed. Sometimes I just want to see something new.

[brazukadev]

There is a big chance it is happening now. SpaceX lost almost 50% of its ATH value. It will continue dropping. OpenAI and Anthropic won't be able to raise money but they need to. Things are about to get uglier fast.

[jdw64]

I also think this bubble will burst. But what I'm curious about is this: most of these arguments are just unfalsifiable alibis. They're just claims, and I want to know when and how it will burst. Most scenarios are way too vague

[jemmyw]

isn't that the point of bubbles: nearly impossible to predict when they'll burst?

[brazukadev]

Are you really asking for someone to be right about when a bubble will burst?

[rmunn]

I'm not going to predict the moment, because I thought the dotcom bubble would pop back in 1999. I could see how overvalued things were, what I couldn't predict was how long the market would remain irrational.

[zulux]

For me, my blind spot has been China. They've maintained their bubble economy for decades longer than I (and a few other smarter people than me) think possible.

[grebc]

Maybe their economy isn’t as bubble like as you think?

[rmunn]

I've seen many analysts say (I'm no expert myself so I'd have a hard time judging) that the official government figures for things like GDP and so on cannot possibly be accurate. (And before you ask "Which figures, which years, what degree of inaccuracy?" — you'll need to ask someone who actually knows). Which does make it kind of hard to figure anything out about China's economy from outside.

[grebc]

I’ve heard the same. They keep on chugging along despite all the doom mongers.

I think most people throwing shade are doing so of jealousy rather than well thought arguement.

[zulux]

Yes... and no. DJI/BYD, etc are legit amazing. But entire ghost cities filled with unused condos scream bubble.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underoccupied_developments_in_...

[jdw64]

Honestly, I'd call that more of a wish than a prediction. Because most predictions specify which quarter something will burst. Saying that an industry structure will turn out a certain way is just stating the obvious, since everything eventually declines. Every new industry grows fast in the early days and then bursts. That's just wishful thinking.

Claims like 'it will collapse someday' are actually unfalsifiable. Predictions that specify a quarter, on the other hand, are not. This is exactly why I think so-called pundits are useless. They repeat unfalsifiable claims over and over, and when it finally happens later, they say 'I told you so.' How ridiculous is that? I can make that kind of claim too. 'The US will collapse.' Sure, it will. But who knows if it'll even exist in a thousand years? So honestly, if there's no timeframe, it's meaningless.

But most of what gets posted on HN is exactly this kind of unfalsifiable punditry. I'd rather write a new scenario. A scenario where AI succeeds, we're all classified as API tenant farmers, only a few influencers chosen by OpenAI and Anthropic survive, most programming companies shrink, and a new mega-tech emerges. That would be more fun to write.