[toast0]

Social security can 'run out', because it's setup with separate accounting. It's sort of designed that current year social security taxes pay for current year benefits ... in the 70s and 80s increases in taxes and decreases in benefits lead to a surplus of taxes collected which was held under the social security account. Since about 2009, income and costs have been pretty close and since about 2017, costs have consistently been more than income. 'social security runs out' when the accumulated funds have all been paid out.

If there's no other action, current law says benefits will be cut so that benefit payments don't exceed the tax income.

Closing social security off to new workers doesn't help, because current workers pay the bulk of current benefits.

There needs to either be additional funding (from general taxes or a rise in social security taxes) or a reduction in benefits. But nobody wants to do either of those, so chances are we'll get the default option.

On the plus side, I was a teen in the 1990s and my high school economics class suggested social security might not be wholy reliable, so we should separately save for retirement on our own. I estimate we'll have had at least 30 years of warning when benefits are cut, but likely many will still be taken by surprise, or will not have been able to prepare despite foreknowledge.

[jasongi]

> Closing social security off to new workers doesn't help, because current workers pay the bulk of current benefits

You don't have to reduce the taxes. Just phase out the concept that you are paying into a retirement account and call a tax a tax. That means you don't calculate how much an individual receives based on the amount they input.

In Australia, we started a sovereign wealth fund[1] to cover the future liabilities from existing workers eligible for government defined-benefits pensions and closed them to new members. I guess that wouldn't make a lot of sense in the US though given the amount of government debt the US has.

Nowdays in Australia people just have accumulation accounts (super) and the backstop of the universal aged pension.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Fund

[toast0]

> You don't have to reduce the taxes. Just phase out the concept that you are paying into a retirement account and call a tax a tax.

I don't know how you sell that.

"Hey, guess what whipersnappers? You all will still pay the line item for Old Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance, but you won't get anything from it. Thanks, -- Old People who get to spend 12.4% of your income"