[phil21]

Social Security will not run out. It simply won't be taxing current workers enough to pay current retirees. This demographic problem was easily foreseen which is why there is a trust fund to "run out" to begin with. For quite some time social security operated in a surplus since there were many workers per retiree collecting benefits. Now we are around 3:1 workers:retirees and expected to drop to something like 2.2:1.

Where this gets confusing is that most folks seem to have the mental model that Social Security is a pension or some weird retirement account. It is not.

Social Security is simply a pay as you go means tested welfare program. It just means tests in a strange way. If you ended social security taxes today, the trust would run out in a few months and there would be $0 to pay retirees. It's current workers paying for current retirees. Social Security is simply an income tax like any other, but it's separated and marketed the way it is to purposefully make people think it's "their money" and make repealing it politically impossible.

It's just a means tested entitlement program funded by current tax receipts dressed up in fancy marketing. It functions much more similarly to SNAP (food aid) than it does a pension.

[jasongi]

This is the confusing thing, the way it is described is like a hybrid of government welfare and a defined-benefit pension.

How can you simultaneously be "paying into" social security but also have describe it as current workers paying for current retirees?

The only way you really find out which one it is is what happens when it runs out of money - if the government backs it up to give you the full "entitlement" you paid into it, then you were in-fact "paying into it". But if they don't, or change the rules then it sounds like you were just being taxed.

[paytonjjones]

Is there any entitlements program that's not politically impossible to repeal?

Taking away "free stuff", especially once people have come to rely on it, is a political nightmare no matter the structure.

[toast0]

> Is there any entitlements program that's not politically impossible to repeal?

> Taking away "free stuff", especially once people have come to rely on it, is a political nightmare no matter the structure.

Entitlements, namely Social Security, Medicare, VA benefits are (for the most part[1]) not "free stuff", they're programs that people paid into and so they're entitled to the benefits.

When you have a program where you say "work for 10 years and you'll get something when you hit retirement age" or "be in the military and qualify and we'll take care of you in various ways", taking that away should be a political nightmare. That said, the sooner you make changes, the smaller they have to be, and we're running out of time.

[1] There's some stuff in social security for people who have been permanently disabled since before they could work and establish eligibility.

[phil21]

As we saw with the whole DOGE fiasco, a substantial portion of the population would love to tear down current entitlement programs.

Social Security is (or was?) unique in that it was politically untouchable by either side of the aisle. No one was telling anyone they were running for office to cut social security benefits. Plenty run to say they will cut welfare spending.