[root_axis]

> But how many years do you guess? I personally do not think it will take even 10 years for the situation to be commonplace.

IMO it won't be possible for the foreseeable future. There's essentially zero possibility that phones will gain the hardware capacity to run today's Kimi, so the only other alternative is to squeeze the power of today's Kimi into something that can fit on a smartphone, which also seems fairly unlikely considering the current rate of progress.

[JoeAltmaier]

A bold prediction. Phones have gigabytes today. There are famous laws of growth that put terabytes at just a few years away - perhaps 10 isn't too bad an estimate?

[root_axis]

> Phones have gigabytes today.

Phones have zero HBM today.

> There are famous laws of growth that put terabytes at just a few years away

I assume you're referring to Moore's law here, but if you are, it doesn't really apply to HBM in the same way, especially in a smartphone form factor where LPDDR is the only practical option due to heat and energy constraints, and a variety of architectural complexities specific to HBM that make a TB of it in a smart phone something far beyond what we can hope for in any timeline we can project today.

[aleqs]

Phones with HBM are already in development, not that HBM is some sort of strict requirement.

[JoeAltmaier]

capability has been advancing faster than raw FLOPS