| > On that front, I think we're maybe 8 years out from mostly-competent robots. I think this depends on what is meant by "mostly-competent". As you say: > I'd peg robots at years after perfect self-driving, and we're years from that. Robots would need to navigate far more random, uncertain terrain/locations. I'd put a 10 year gap between "self-driving car of quality X" and "humanoid robot able to get into driving seat of car, drive it at quality X", just on a power-envelope basis. For this part, I'd have to disagree: > Certainly, local LLM compute will be super cheap even in a few years, so no issues with a robot having multiple LLMs onboard. While some LLM will be able to fit (and already can because some fit on a phone), the AI we have now in LLMs (and VLMs) is much too spiky for this use. Recent Anthropic and OpenAI models have just given me half a dozen different confident identifications for the same plant, many of which were easily falsified even by comparing what was in the image to what the AI's text output claimed it had seen in the image, like the leaf shape and how many came out of each node. |