I'm not really sure that China's labour costs can be described as "low" these days, going by GDP per capita [0] they're above the global average. They're a little lower than the Europe median I think but the gap probably isn't strategically important.
The Chinese edge tends to come from their environmental laws; they allow their industry to do things that the West would ban.
I have no source for this but I feel like the environment thing is too frequently repeated (also without any evidence). They're pumping out solar like mad and places like the Xinjiang deserts actually have nowhere to put their excess electricity from what I've read previously.
They also have a "cancel" culture pointed at the right place, in that whenever there is some exposé of some xyz it usually does get some reaction from the authorities. Even if in the end no real punishment is meted out due to corruption or politics or cover ups the very least is that the perps gave to change a hiding spot. Which is very much unlike the datacenter gas turbines running in people's backyards in the US right now.
Furthermore if you take a look at the Politburo meetings and political documents etc it is clear that Xi is actively trying to solve the environmental problem. In the latest people's meeting it was also a talking point. It is a matter of "face" for them at this point. Contrast with "drill baby drill"?
It is easy to talk about the "environmental" problems in China but I think it is very last decade.
As a disclaimer I live in Asia and I frequently visit China but I'm not Chinese nor do I get any so called "social credits" which actually don't exist in China. The information gap between what the west thinks they know about China and what it actually is is sometimes kind of just a huge joke.
I think the environment thing is really overblown as well.
What’s not overblown is the ease with which the government can get big projects done. And there are some downsides to that, specifically when it comes to property rights.
The Beijing public transit trains are a great example. The routes are wildly straight. So straight they allow extremely long trains.
Thats possible, in part, because the government can just reappropriate the land in a way that governments in the west can’t without engaging with a contentious public.
And that’s just one example. That sort of thing permeates many different kinds of projects and leads to a particular kind of efficiency.
I've been saying the same thing for the last 8 years to my european and american friends. Maybe in another 8 years they'll finally realise, or they will quietly adjust to the new normal where China is no longer viewed as this cheating, dirty and backwards competitor.
> I have no source for this but I feel like the environment thing is too frequently repeated (also without any evidence).
> They're pumping out solar like mad and places like the Xinjiang deserts actually have nowhere to put their excess electricity from what I've read previously.
You've found a pretty compelling piece of evidence right there. There is a reason they're the ones pumping out solar like mad - because they have relatively lax environmental laws. If they had western-style environmental laws the panels would have to be manufactured in India or Africa or something.
Obviously it isn't the only criteria because I'm sure there are places with lower environmental requirements than China; but the big selling point for the last 20-odd years seems to have been more that you're allowed to manufacture there and they have a competent workforce rather than that the wages were amazingly low.
Reminds me of my first trip to Japan, a lifetime of robotech and ghost in the shell had me shocked and disappointed at how run down and stuck in the 80s Tokyo and Hiroshima was.
If you study the last 5k years, then the real question how on earth did the Europeans (primarily) and then the Americans managed to stay ahead of China for as long as they did (the "Needham Question").
Confucius came before Plato and most important discoveries came from China. The two wrote a the "good citizen" ought to be and how a city/country/empire ought to be run. Even meritocracy has been traditionally stronger in China, over centuries.
In the west we're talking about it since Homer, but in practice has been applied sporadically, while China has been much more consistent.
China's labor costs are low for most labor-intensive manufactured goods that higher-income countries import from them. They're high for most labor-intensive manufactured goods that China imports from lower-income countries. It's all relative. Not all manufacturing is super polluting (nor is all manufacturing labor-intensive), but if you tried to replicate a non-polluting labor-intensive Chinese factory's cost structure in a high-income country, you'd still run into the problem that the workers you'd need to hire have better options available.
I'm not sure how true is this claim about weak environmental laws. I don't have any data to back this up, but I was in China in 2013 and two years ago and the difference in air quality in major cities is staggering. So, maybe they destroy the environment but for sure they no longer do that near the big cities.
To be honest I do not thihk you are wrong. Not in a way AI talent is underpaid, but they unlikely need to offer $1,000,000 sign up bonuses to just create AI lab. Its still pays better than average SWE job, but not x5-x10 more like in US.
Though in manufacturing China is dominating because of immense optimized supply chain, economy of scale and now workforce with know-how.
I honestly cant compare with US since I'm not from US, but to produce something in EU you will have weeks or months lags on logistics of source materials and components. And some industries only exist in some countries, etc.
In China in one single place you have anything you need to produce from a toaster to a car in hands reach or might be few days at most.
And I guess China did the same with education. Education is a lot cheaper there so they just have more talent.
Are you implying air pollution in China is not bad anymore? I wish that was the case because I would visit a lot more but you need to educate yourself a little bit just go look here: https://aqicn.org/map/china/
I'm sure it's better than it was before and it's not India bad but it's almost always considered unhealthy in most parts throughout the whole year
Great, so you plonk data centers into the desert. Now you need to cool them, and bestow them with excellent network connectivity. Those are things that isolated, arid locations cannot do very well.
So, plonking data centers into the desert (or on orbit) isn't really a silver bullet, is it?
China has an explicit national policy to build high bandwidth network connections across the arid Western half of the country called the digital silk road. And on the scale of China's other projects in the west (e.g. mining, large scale agriculture, chemical plants), the water usage of a data center or ten is a rounding error.
I don't know if they're actually building AI DCs out there, but it doesn't seem completely unreasonable like you're suggesting.
Of course it doesn't seem completely unreasonable to build out power distribution, cooling, and high-bandwidth network interconnects throughout a region, but once you've done that, you are no longer facing the empty, barren desert scenario.
So if China builds out infrastructure that can be maintained in perpetuity, then more power to them, and the NIMBYs won't have a leg to stand on.
Conversely, in these United States, I've seen literal tons of data centers being plonked into urban centers: literally at intersections where lots of people drive by in daily commutes, there are data centers now where there weren't before, and they are also found on the outskirts of civilization, because they require more security than accessibility. So data center siting can take multiple factors into account here, depending on their purpose.
And can we please stop hammering on the "AI Data Center" meme, because in my experience, a DC is a DC, whether they choose to make it AI or not AI, they're probably all AI from now on, but it just adds fuel to the Luddite fires to say so...
Oh, they're trying, and the locals are not happy, due to both the rise in electricity usage (mostly NOT solar) and environmental damage. Look up the datacenter planned in Box Elder County, Utah.
The Chinese edge tends to come from their environmental laws; they allow their industry to do things that the West would ban.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...