[0x3f]

You can make this same argument about a great number of things. Why is steel any more critical than food or vaccines or the like? Indeed we got caught short of vaccines recently, and had some nontrivial consideration of running a military op against NATO member over it.

[matt727]

The food example, is the exact reason for large farming subsidies in the European Union. These were implemented as a founding initiative, due to the experience of food shortages during the second world war. A great number of things could be considered critical. Due to the nature of when access could be cut off, the main thing countries likely worry about being able to access, is things humans need to stay alive, and things needed to wage war.

[0x3f]

Farming subsidies are one of the most criticized parts of the EU. My comment isn't in support of it. But even so, subsidy is quite different from compulsory purchase. The question is: why is steel special. Not in a no-action-vs-some-action way, but why so aggressive?

Ironically I think it's the same for both steel and farmers: they provide votes.

[XorNot]

Because like, every basic war machine is made from it? Like how is this a question?

There's been two world wars and access to or stockpiling of steel has been a critical strategic factor in both.

Most consumable military assets are made from steel, for example and it underpins most machine tools and factory components as well.

[lazide]

Also all non-flying forms of transport.

[handelaar]

For lots of reasons but if you're the UK and you're honest with yourself and you are only allowed to pick exactly one reason that steel is absolutely critical?

Royal Navy.

[t0mpr1c3]

Ezcept that the shipyards closed in the 1970s.

[AngryData]

Farming subsidies are the only way to prevent famine, the granary system sort of works, but regularly resulted in shortages and famines throughout every empire in history. Even not accounting for longer term climate trends, yield due to weather can vary up to 30% in a year, so it only makes sense to pay for a bit of over production so in the event of a couple bad years your food output is merely break even, and not 70% of needs.

Its better to pay 5 cents more for a loaf now than pay $20 a loaf with rationing later, or if we went back to granary system possibly getting moldy food.

[benj111]

Isn't the point of rationing to prevent the loaf going to $20.

[lazide]

Usually no one tolerates rationing until it’s already at $20 a loaf.

[remus]

Obviously there are a lot of important things you need to keep a country running, but steel is a key input a in a huge number of very important sectors (infrastructure, military, automotive etc.) so having some ability to produce your own steel seems a sensible hedge.

[Deukhoofd]

Food tends to be a lot easier to produce, and many countries do often subsidize their food production, as well as have mercantilistic policies to ensure food production is kept locally.

Vaccines is a more interesting one, and would be something that might indeed be of interest to a nation. On the other hand I don't think many governments are that concerned about another pandemic, sometimes the discourse regarding it very much sounds like "what are the odds it'll happen again"

[ben_w]

> On the other hand I don't think many governments are that concerned about another pandemic, sometimes the discourse regarding it very much sounds like "what are the odds it'll happen again"

Gambler's fallacy will keep striking until we do better, won't it.

[0x3f]

I don't really care for farm subsidies either, but even ignoring that: it's quite a different level of intervention than compulsory purchase. Same with the vaccines. We didn't respond to that crisis by nationalizing AstraZeneca.

My rhetorical point is just that steel gets special treatment probably because it's politically expedient. There are large, politically-relevant parts of the country that are still emotionally tied to the idea that we're an industrial nation. People under the age of 30 still go on about Thatcher and the miners.

There's no real shortage of steel around the world that I know of. We could just stockpile it instead, for example. And in the hypothetical tail-risk scenario this is all supposed to insure against... how do we even get the raw materials for making steel anyway?

[ben_w]

> There's no real shortage of steel around the world that I know of. We could just stockpile it instead, for example. And in the hypothetical tail-risk scenario this is all supposed to insure against... how do we even get the raw materials for making steel anyway?

The more I learn about steel, the more I realise it's not one single thing but a whole collection of different families of things, each with different tradeoffs.

e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-strength_low-alloy_steel#...

[vablings]

One big thing about steel is actually traceability, certain industries require very specific steels. One example that always comes to mind is Sheffield Forgemaster's who are one of the few places in the world that can make absolutely gargantuan sized castings for nuclear reactors and marine equipment

[XorNot]

Vaccines aren't something you need urgently in a crisis.

A wartime effort has to keep supplies moving daily, or the front collapses.

Whereas the need for vaccines is heavily deferred - your population is already vaccinated in peacetime, and you are unlikely to need to make a novel vaccine over the course of a war, nor vaccinate new population during one either: that large vaccinated population providing herd immunity gives you a lot of runway for children with less access.

[pjc50]

> Vaccines aren't something you need urgently in a crisis

.. what were you doing in 2020?

> you are unlikely to need to make a novel vaccine over the course of a war

The lab leak people are probably wrong, but in the present era we're a lot closer to "hook AI up to a CRISPR machine and generate a biological weapon" than we have ever been.

Everyone seems to assume that we might get in a war that we recognize and can fight with the tools of WW2, ships and tanks, rather than a war we don't recognize fought with weapons we don't understand and have no counter for. Or, more likely, simply get bought out at the top. Why fire a missile when you can buy a political party for a mere £5m?

[XorNot]

> .. what were you doing in 2020?

Waiting several years for widespread vaccine availability, and practicing good hygiene and social distancing.

Viruses aren't so good at seizing and holding territory.

[ben_w]

As I recall, the economic damage of the pandemic was ~ "it's worth spending ten billion dollars to make the vaccinations arrive one day sooner": https://www.newsweek.com/operation-warp-speed-what-deal-opin...

(And that was just the cost to the USA, not the world as a whole).

[XorNot]

Which does not change the fact that the pandemic was a peacetime crisis where it was possible but not practical to keep most systems running if needed.

Coronavirus wasn't bullseyeing vaccine shipments in the Pacific or taking down air freighters.

EDIT: I mean I don't know why you think this is a catch-22: countries pursue both capabilities, and the UK has a pharmaceutical industry and on shore manufacturing capabilities.

Whereas many industrialized nations are struggling to keep steel making capabilities on shore and running. So why is steel special? Because currently it's the one we're in danger of losing (and much harder to ship globally even if you have allies).

[toast0]

> Viruses aren't so good at seizing and holding territory.

Neither is infantry that's sick with the flu, which may have been a factor in the ending of of WWI.

Tis hard to practice good hygiene and social distancing in the trenches.

If one side had better access to vaccines or access to better vaccines in a conflict during a pandemic, it would be significant, regardless of how the pandemic came about.

[timschmidt]

> The lab leak people are probably wrong

https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/Testimony-Qu...

[defrost]

That is indeed the testimony of Steven C. Quay, one of "the lab leak people" that are asserted by GP to be probably wrong.

Very few people would claim that there is no testimony for the lab leak claim, it's simply that relatively few domain scientists support that claim.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_C._Quay

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lab_leak_theory

[timschmidt]

> relatively few domain scientists support that claim

I spent a decade at a national Science and Technology Research Center responsible for a twelfth of NSF's research budget. We studied biology at all scales and the algorithms it uses to solve difficult problems. I've looked for holes in Quay's testimony and didn't find any big ones. Most of his claims seem to be independently verified.

One thing I can say from my decade of experience is that scientists are not dumb people, and are acutely aware of how their work is perceived, and the connection that has to their research funding. You'll find as many scientists warning about the dangers of lax lab regulation as you will coal miners warning about climate change. Private conversations are very different.

[8note]

you definitely want flu vaccines for your infantry, lest they get captured or killed en mass due to fever

on a similar note, medical supplies and logistics are a huge deal for going to war, to handle casualties

[cucumber3732842]

>Why is steel any more critical than food or vaccines or the like?

Countries that import large shares of their food and medical supply chains are constantly trying to develop domestic capacity.

[1970-01-01]

Steel comes from iron, which you can't grow. It's more critical than food, which you can grow. Same for vaccines.

[0x3f]

> Steel comes from iron, which you can't grow

Right, and where is the iron coming from in the scenario where we can't import steel?

[1970-01-01]

As it is top-critical, you're recycling it, opening new mines, and taking it by force.

[0x3f]

Don't most of these contingencies apply to steel in the first place?

[1970-01-01]

Nope. The entire point here is facing the decision on which of these contingencies will apply.

[0x3f]

Why can't steel be recycled or taken by force?