[SilverSlash]

Do you think the barbarians are at the gates of OpenAI and Anthropic? If cheaper, open weights models can seriously take revenue away from those two labs for (frontier - 1) model use cases (which are the models most enterprises will choose) then OpenAI and Anthropic are left only with users using their latest and greatest model AND who will keep upgrading to the newer ones?

[fwipsy]

Bull case: iteration becomes so quick that frontier-1 won't cut it. OpenAI and Anthropic are both betting on the singularity, I suppose.

[sigbottle]

The "singularity" as stated requires AI to either make a technological advancement strong enough to be deadly to humans (besides just intelligence), or spreading deep institutional support for itself among society.

The idea that "we will get superintelligence first, then... ???" is kind of a weird notion. I mean, it's pretty arguable that we do have at least some form of superintelligence. The AI itself needs to actually do something with it though. Either that, or more likely, someone needs to do something bad with the superintelligence.

That could be both re-assuring or not. Because under that view, given how AI is being integrated so quickly into society, it's not going to take this fantasy view of superintelligence to reach the singularity. If you have broad institutional support and crowd out the thing we call humanity over time (the two ways to 'solve' a problem: solve it, or declare it meaningless), that is another way to reach the singularity.

[ford]

Without the singularity, I think Frontier labs will offer intelligent model blends. They'll have their own versions of "cheap" models and be expert at using the appropriate amount of compute for a task.