Risk mitigation is not "for no reason". It is actually one of the larger revenue generators in the economy.
That said, I wouldn't bet (if I were you) on something without clearly defining the terms. If Stripe simply homogenizes contractual rules that match their contracts with Mastercard, etc, which side of the bet would that fall on?
I'm not sure why everyone in this thread consistently ignores the fact that PayPal has been profitably servicing these types of businesses for years. The risk has already been mitigated.
> If Stripe simply homogenizes contractual rules that match their contracts with Mastercard, etc, which side of the bet would that fall on?
That would be me losing the bet. What you and others in this thread seem to be missing is that Stripe's risk factors are not the same as PayPal's because Paypal works directly with merchants rather than as a proxy for the card rails like Stripe. The idea that Stripe would take ownership of the platform and start shutting off paying customers is absurd, and as of yet, I haven't seen anyone acknowledge this fact in their explanation of why Stripe would throw away free money.
Good news is, this is one of the niche areas where prediction markets make sense.
I wouldn't mind seeing a few predictions around this acquisition and the longer term outcomes like the one y'all are discussing. I have no interest in participating, just want to see where folks are leaning.
That said, I wouldn't bet (if I were you) on something without clearly defining the terms. If Stripe simply homogenizes contractual rules that match their contracts with Mastercard, etc, which side of the bet would that fall on?