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by solumunus 16 days ago
But how will Musk stay a trillionaire without fake AI hype?
2 comments

> Just be a rocket company
According to SpaceX's own filing documents, you are incorrect. They must be principally an AI company to justify anything close to their current valuation.
Get de-facto monopoly on American space launches and I don't think they need to be anything else.
Ok, but that means they will shrink down to $7 per share like the analysts are telling us.
Payload into space is a very limited business.

This doesn't make Space-X such a high valued company at all.

And while Space-X is doing its thing, the rest of the world started to move too (china). So first mover advantage is disappearing.

> Payload into space is a very limited business.

Today, sure. In the future, very unlikely. US military and alike are also unlikely to start to rely on China to ship stuff to space.

We already send up a ton of satelites etc.

So what will reasonable be the payload we send up which makes Space-X a Trillion dollar company?

It will not be Datacenters for at least 50 or 100 years more.

The rocket business is hardly profitable. The whole valuation is based around grok and space datacenters. He needs to keep pumping the hype or else we are in for the worlds biggest crash.
Well, in the long run expansion into space is the only profitable thing.
That's a much longer long run than Keynes' "in the long run we are all dead".
I’m sure that’s an idea Musk wants to sell you on.
What a bizarre take.

What's so special out there that we can feasibly reach in the lifetimes of our grandchildren that makes it the "only profitable thing"?

Data centers without local protests?
Space data centers without in space manufacturing & resource mining are of course stupid. But in space infra is what is necessary for humans to move beyond Earth & that's the critical bit, that enables everything else in the long term.
I mean real things, not ridiculous bullshit to con investors and rubes
Local protests didn't stop Colossus 1 or Colossus 2.

Local protests also didn't stop Space-X. People around his DCs or Space-X still suffer today.

He had to come up with some magic story. The Payload increased only due to his Starlink. But even then, the payload into space is basically non existend.

2025 was the year with the most payload and its only 5000t.

And for us as human beings, a DC in space is the worst case scenario. This will create a lot of stress on our atmosphere (potential, reentry poisning of our atmosphere with lithium and aluminium), co2 usage and the loose of real resources.

He will send metals into space to burn them later into our atmopshere. Limited resources we as a planet have.

And for what? For a DC? A DC which you can put in any dessert on our planet for cheap energy and not having any neighbours.

Only Edge DCs need low latency, your training clusters don't need low latency to end user, plenty of inferencing jobs don't need low latency either.

Why would a rocket company be worth trillions? Are you trying to be funny?
Renting his boatload of GPUs to Google, Anthropic, et al
He doesn't have _that_ many. And they're also not _his_, he just got them from NVidia.
You don't have to like the guy, but buying something is typically how ownership goes. I refer to my car as mine, but I did just buy it from Honda.
I mean that it's not his IP, he's not producing any GPUs/TPUs. He's just reselling his idle stock of cards.
Not to be pedantic, but although the datacenters are running Nvidia hardware, Tesla did develop their own 20-core/3-npu high bandwidth chip for their cars. It's nowhere near the computational ability of any datacenter GPU, but at 150+ TOPS it's no slouch either.
I read that they bought quite a few, but their DC build out is not very fast. Maybe they should just resell the hardware