[el_nahual]

I mean, that's what the yield is. The spread between what the bond pays and the Risk-Free Rate (Treasury) tells you what the market thinks the risk of default is.

For a spread of 300 basis points that's still a very low probability, probably under 5%.

[toast0]

If they had said 'the yield is' or especially the 'yield to maturity' is... that's one thing, but they said "you will get a return of"

You'll probably get that, but you might not.

[koolba]

Even in the case of a default it’s not a zero payoff. Bond holders get first dibs of unsecured assets at liquidation.