[Sol-]

Isn't it realistically only worth talking about SpaceX stock a few years out? The random walk the stock will do after an IPO seems very uninformative.

[danso]

How often do companies issue a $25B bond the same month that they IPO?

[sethops1]

Normally I would agree, but SpaceX being forced into the Nasdaq at a 3x multiplier makes this a non-normal situation.

[jeremyjh]

This is about a bond issue - a large drop in value there so soon after issue is far more unusual and much worse news.

[rchaud]

Burton Malkiel's "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" was published in 1973, well before significant changes to financial markets that affect its theoretical randomness.

1. 401Ks were introduced in 1978, making mainstream the concept of automatic payroll deductions that funded an investment account. Trillions more dollars moved into pension funds that might otherwise have been spent elsewhere.

2. Bloomberg Terminals went online in 1982, kicking off an ever-growing information assymetry between investment professionals and retail investors.

3. Electronic trading didn't take off until 1992 with Globex, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's platform

4. High-frequency trading didn't take off until 2005 or so

5. Finally, the Nasdaq changed its rules in 2026 in a way that directly benefited new IPOs like SpaceX, triggering automated purchases from investment funds, propping up its price beyond what its business fundamentals might have justified.

[enopod_]

This bit is not about the stock, it‘s about bonds. They made about $70B (?) in the IPO and now issued bonds for about $25B. This debt is rated at junk level now.