[kunxue]

The baseline matters here: favorites win World Cups all the time. How often would "always pick the two pre-tournament favorites" have gotten the champion in these same 10 tournaments? Without that comparison, 10/10 tells us basically nothing.

[decimalenough]

France was far and away the pre-tournament favorite for 2026, if anything it's somewhat impressive that OP's model correctly predicted that they wouldn't make it.

Here's hoping they were right for England as well, but we'll find out soon enough.

[fabioricardo7]

That was exactly the point I was trying to make in this preprint. I appreciate your comment.