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by leonidasv 14 days ago
This is the most important part most people don't get:

> And what would 3 °C mean for Germany?

> FB: In summer, meteorological records could reach up to 50 °C. Three degrees of global warming does not mean hot days will just be 3 or 4 degrees hotter. It could mean up to 10 degrees hotter. We would also face much longer droughts.

3°C warming implies summer days can get 10°C hotter. This is nightmare scenario.

5 comments

> This is the most important part most people don't get

I wouldn't say "people don't get" it when it's not well-communicated. When the headline always says 2-3 degrees, of course people are going to shrug.

It was always explained that way to me though. the "Our house is burning, and we are looking away" speech was like 20 years ago and it was pretty clear then than average increase in temps mostly mean higher maximums and minimums.

Nowadays, people who never did anything to consume less (and made fun of people who stopped taking the plane) can't hide behind the "we didn't know" because everybody knew, so they hide behind the "it was not predicted to be as bad" and other "the scientists explained that poorly", but we know what's up, even when they lie to themselves.

What do you mean? Both Europe and America moved industrial production to China (which was an explicit choice/policy) which as a side effect radically increased the amount of coal used to power industrial production, BUT lets Europeans and Americans both pay less (ie. make workers poorer) AND lets them claim innocence for CO2 increases, while in fact increasing their CO2 use indirectly.
Do you think that if China had isolated itself and refused all trade, it would have tried to avoid industry and emissions?

Do you think that China is controlled by its customers, making it a passive bystander in its own emissions, the agency and blame for which thus belongs to the customers?

Do you think that individuals who deliberately choose to emit less exist in significant numbers in China, or in the world, or ever might do?

That 3°C is about the yearly average of global temperatures, from deserts to poles, night and day, all year round, and maintained for several years. That is not weather, but it’s more like system energy.

Now, some regions get more average heating than others, so in that is not even, and then there is the weather, what you feel day to day. And right now we are already getting extreme heatwaves and other extreme weather events like flooding rains and hurricanes in zones where they were not usual. Those will increase in frequency and intensity, and I would not be surprised if there are peaks of temperature beyond 55°C, even before 2050, in industrialized countries

this also means thermal turbulence which means breakup of flow, and that means failure of distribution, leading to localized torrid spots, that translates to heat dome regions of more than 10°C hotter.
Are you saying those researchers got their upper bound too low? You should inform them of their mistake.
For us Imperialists, 10C is 50F.

We would, quite literally, be cooked. That'd leave us with summers around 140-150F.

No, it’s 18°F. This is a temperature difference, not an absolute temperature, the conversion isn’t the same.
Yep. I must've been in a weird headspace when I wrote that. You are correct, sir.
> For us Imperialists, 10C is 50F.

That's nowhere near close to correct.

This June in Germany was on average 3 °C hotter than usual. That should give an idea.
For those missing context: we beat all-time heat records with ~42ºC, and it was quite difficult to manage for 3 days with our current infrastructure.