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by cmiles8 17 days ago
Stay well diversified, keep investing each month, and take a nap.

There are almost surely severe bumps ahead for the AI space and that will likely spill over into the broader market. But unless you’re retiring in the next few years don’t worry about it. You can’t time the ups and downs and the only proven strategy is to just keep investing in a broad indexed portfolio and just ride out. You’ll take a short term hit but also end up buying on the dip because you don’t stop investing.

2 comments

I suppose I'm just a little worried about a 10 year sideways market. The run-up has been absolutely insane the past year...some graphs are just a literal straight line up. I didn't get to participate in much of that and concerned the prevailing wisdom on these larger timescales may no longer hold true.
Stocks are long term investments, 10yr+ So you should expect the possibility of a sideways market.
tell that to day traders, or retirees
> I suppose I'm just a little worried about a 10 year sideways market.

In that case possibly go with something global; in the one recent period where S&P500 was pretty much sideways for 10 years, MSCI World, say, did somewhat better. If the wheels do fall off for the AI bubble, it'll probably hit the US market harder than others.

_Within reason_ (you probably don’t want an index that has literally every stock in the world, say), broader indexes are generally less volatile than narrower ones; must downturns are at least somewhat regional, and sectoral downturns hit some regions harder than others.

If you didn't participate in it, what are you hedging?
I would guess, longer positions held from before the past year to date period.

(As for me, I'm just hedging my rhetorical front lawn.)

> If you didn't participate in it

But that's not what they said?

>> I didn't get to participate in much of that

The S&P is through the roof because of the AI boom - it's bound to crash if the big players do. What's a better index? It's hard to imagine a world in which these broad indexes don't crash too. It's the sector indexes I'd love to understand better from a cyclical point of view, so I can buy something that won't also crash.