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by piltdownman 14 days ago
The Governance of that oh-so-dependable Texan power grid are going to engage in some macabre arithmetic this Winter...
2 comments

That happened in 2021 and we haven't had similar issues since. I haven't experienced a power grid failure since then.
According to Google, Texas currently has about 87GW of peak capacity & a data center production pipeline that will require 75-100GW. So the state will have to basically double its peak capacity to supply power to all those new data centers.
They have a very strong solar buildout going on, and they don't care how many environmentalists they piss off to get them built, ironically.
Using solar to cater to demand increase from data centers will compound the issue.

The 2021 grid failure was triggered by a winter storm which had 3 effects: pushed up energy demand for heating, kneecapped solar generation, and caused failures in bringing up backup sources online (because operators didn't invest enough in "winterizing" their equipment)

Clearly this is a problem, Texas being the one state notoriously known for not having any natural resources or energy production infrastructure.
They only have 12 years of proven natural gas reserves left so you should take up whatever issues you have w/ lack of natural resources w/ mother nature. Most of the new capacity they are planning to build are natural gas & coal plants. Renewables are not reliable enough for data centers.
And they will, because Texas allows building.

Question, how do you think the entire infrastructure around you that you’ve taken for granted your whole life was built?

If you were asked, would you have voted to allow the building of your own home, the infrastructure and roads around it, and the businesses whose tax revenue funds your local municipality you suddenly are so concerned about?

One of the most bizarre contradictions of this current moment is the simultaneous anger at things being expensive and also anger towards building anything. Even on this supposedly 'intellectually-minded' forum the extreme irony flies over the heads of most.

> If you were asked, would you have voted to allow the building of your own home, the infrastructure and roads around it, and the businesses whose tax revenue funds your local municipality you suddenly are so concerned about?

My town isn't perfect in those terms but it's probably about as good as possible, so yes I would have. Of all the places I've lived, tho, there's certainly lots of thing I would have opposed, given the chance, like all those highways.

> If you were asked, would you have voted to allow the building of your own home, the infrastructure and roads around it, and the businesses whose tax revenue funds your local municipality you suddenly are so concerned about?

If there were proper studies on the environmental and economic impacts, instead of blindly building without due diligence. The issue is that data centers are being built without this kind of analysis, at huge cost to the surrounding communities.

> One of the most bizarre contradictions of this current moment is the simultaneous anger at things being expensive and also anger towards building anything.

This seems like you're being purposefully obtuse, given the context in long thread you're replying to. It's not against "building anything", it's data centers which harm the surrounding communities.

Hate to confront you with reality, but if you're in the US, 95% of the infrastructure around you was built in a world prior to the sham obstructionist cudgel of "environmental impact studies" even existed.

So the answer is no, you would not have voted to build everything around you that currently exists.

Btw, have you ever looked into how your municipality funds its services and where that tax money comes from? I have some bad news for you.

> 95% of the infrastructure around you was built in a world prior to the sham obstructionist cudgel of "environmental impact studies" even existed.

Yeah and that's how we got a messed up environment.

Thanks for telling me how I think. If we're doing that, let me tell you how you think: you don't care about people and want to pursue profit over human life, and will go to any length to defend a private corporation over the people who have to live with the negative impacts of its poor decisions.

Not sure if you're aware of this, but a large portion of the infrastructure that was built before environmental impact studies existed caused severe health issues for the surrounding communities, including cancer and death. That's why we have environmental impact studies now.

Then you should move to Texas. Seems like that would solve whatever issue you have w/ lack of new buildings or whatever you're concerned about.
The previous failure was in 2011, and didn't happen again until a decade later. The root cause hasn't been resolved since 2021: the demand and weather conditions simply haven't recurred since.
Yes, it's just tiring to hear the same meme putdowns about how this Winter we're all going to suffer when we probably have less brownouts etc than a lot of other places.

I remember 2011 but I didn't actually have any issues with a power failure it was just extremely icy. These are freak weather events, generally the grid holds up fine. I'm not saying we don't have issues but it is kind o foverblown.

> I didn't actually have any issues with a power failure it was just extremely icy.

Maybe ask someone who lost power - or lost a loved one - and find out if they are as sanguine about the icy conditions. People died. "It's not a big deal since I wasn't personally affected" isn't a scalable position, but it is a quintessentially Texan attitude.

I didn't say that.
many of the data centers are being built with natural gas generators on site, and they are using excess gas from the oil drilling.
Texas is the only state in the lower 48 that has no major connections to neighboring power grids. That means growing energy demand in Texas must be met by new power generation in Texas.

Texas has not improved energy efficiency standards since the 2021 blackout, and have resisted all attempts at increasing the governance of the gas generation.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas' "Capacity, Demand and Reserves report" even details a scenario in which massive energy demand growth in the state surpasses available supply in 2026.

https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2025/02/12/CapacityDemandan...

Now add data centre demand in a climate where passive-cooling isn't viable and inter-state redundancy is non-existent.

https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/US-TEX-ERCO/live/fi...

Despite all the yapping, there's a crap ton of (ever growing) solar and wind and battery storage and what not in Texas. And ERCOT does have a power link with the neighboring SPP.

https://www.spp.org/documents/71831/ercot-spp%20coordination...

No one wants the grid to collapse after all (except you I guess, for whatever reason).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Interconnection

> The Texas Interconnection is tied to the Eastern Interconnection with a 220 MW DC tie near Oklaunion, and a 600 MW DC tie near Monticello, and is tied to NERC (North American Electric Reliability Corporation) systems in Mexico with a 300 MW DC tie near McAllen, and a 100 MW VFT tie near Laredo.[29] There is one AC tie switch in Dayton, Texas

Including in-flight projects, that totals several GW. Texas demand today is pretty low for noon - clouds and rain in much of the state, and we're at 70 GW.
Building interconnects costs money. What's the ROI on building more?

Positive ROI becomes present if Texas has large amounts of nondispatchable power and the neighboring areas do not have the same. So if Texas builds more wind and solar than they can consume themselves, then it makes sense to invest in more interconnection capacity. But that's predicted on excessive production first.

Finally, let's just say they built 70 GW of interconnection, because you seen to think that number is important. Do you think Louisiana and Arkansas have that much generation and transmission capacity themselves? Let alone EXCESS?

Washington and Oregon are on the same grid, with about peak generation of 31 GW and 18 GW, yet only about 7 GW of transfer capacity exists, and it's only that high because of sales to California because of seasonal hydroelectric oversupply, an oversupply which doesn't exist in Texas, Arkansas, or Louisiana.

Significantly higher interconnection capacity does not yet make financial sense. They're right to not yet waste money on them.

I haven't been arguing for or against anything, and I don't think the original thread creator was, either.

The comment from @piltdownman merely clarified that Texas is for the most part an isolated grid. That if demand matches predictions from our state regulator, Texas needs to continue massively increasing energy supply.

Texas is the second-biggest state. Where are they going to make major connections to -- the Great Prairie? There's a whole New Mexico-worth of sparse population between Dallas/Austin/San Antonio before you get to New Mexico itself, which you would then need to cross halfway before you hit a major population center.

Enron fiasco put a local power company here in WA in insurmountable debt because they couldn't ship power to California because the lines were already overloaded. If you build a major new power-consuming plant in Washington, you'll need to get power from someplace closer than half the width of Texas (and only even that far because historically we had coal power plants in Montana, so there's existing long-distance transmission).

I'm not saying they haven't made mistakes, but saying a place had "no major connections" is both wrong and ignores why. El Paso has "major" connections to New Mexico. It shouldn't be surprising Dallas doesn't have "major" connections to New Mexico, just like Denver CO doesn't to Portland OR.

>> El Paso has "major" connections to New Mexico.

El Paso is not part of the Texas grid (ERCOT):

https://www.epa.gov/green-power-markets/us-grid-regions

Neither are the panhandle nor the northeastern portion.

GGP didn't say ERCOT, they said "Texas". Which further demonstrates how ignorant it is to say there are "no major connections".
Here's some reading:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Interconnection

Most of Texas is on this grid, not connected to any other states. The total amount of power that can flow between the Texas Interconnect and the rest of the US grid is a small fraction of the Texas grid's demand. That was the point being made by the original commenter.

> Texas is the second-biggest state. Where are they going to make major connections to ...

Anywhere else in the transmission network that has excess generation capacity. If the biggest state benefits from interconnection, why wouldn't the second biggest benefit too?

Daily demand is cyclic, even with no additional capacity added, being connected to grids in other timezones that have different demand peak-times is a net win.

>in a climate where passive-cooling isn't viable

Chips can also be water cooled, and Texas borders an endless supply of water in the Gulf of America.

Are you being serious or sarcastic?
Completely serious. Sea water cooling for data centers is already in use here in Helsinki. And water temperature in the Gulf of America doesn't seem to go above 30 C even in the summer.

https://news.ftcpublications.com/core/coastal-cities-test-se...

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/gom/sst_map.php

Sea water would have to be piped to places like Dallas, whereas much of Finland's people/data centers are closer to the shoreline. A solution that works in certain places does not generally work everywhere.
The gas generators are what make the hum that people complain about; I'd expect the outside of a data center to be quiet without those.

Better for the extra natural gas to power data centers than to "accidentally" leak into the atmosphere .

> Better for the extra natural gas to power data centers than to "accidentally" leak into the atmosphere

I'm guessing this is an easy win when you don't live or work near one, and not the one breathing the resulting particulates and nitrogen compounds.