[Shorel]

They are not randomly guessing, they are doing something more sofisticated: they are correlating gameplay with the evidence of board wear.

They are creating a probability distribution function where each point is a different gameplay ruleset and then we are free to pick the gameplay ruleset with the highest probability, with the caveat that there are other similar gameplays, with slightly different rules, and almost the same probability. And there are other gameplay rules with much lower probability because they don't match the wear of the board.

A random guess would have a flat distribution where any gameplay has the same probability.