[ArtTimeInvestor]

    Emarketer’s data finds that standalone chatbots like ChatGPT,
    Microsoft Copilot app, Google AI Mode, and Amazon Alexa for
    Shopping (formerly Rufus) in U.S, will generate less than $1
    billion in ad revenue this year, and just $5.41 billion by 2030.

How would that be possible? In the past I used Google maybe 10 times a day with a short query. From which Google had to guess my intent. Now I babble with Gemini all day about everything. And Gemini can ask questions what exactly I mean. Why wouldn't Alphabet be able to generate more revenue from this than from search? And Google's ad revenue from search is over $100B per year.

Just because there are no ads now does not mean there never will be. Google search was run without ads for the first years too.

[lelanthran]

> How would that be possible? In the past I used Google maybe 10 times a day with a short query. From which Google had to guess my intent. Now I babble with Gemini all day about everything. And Gemini can ask questions what exactly I mean. Why wouldn't Alphabet be able to generate more revenue from this than from search?

When you used google 10x a day, you saw, at a minimum, 20 ads/day. How many ads are you seeing when you babble all day long with a chatbot?

[JumpCrisscross]

> When you used google 10x a day, you saw, at a minimum, 20 ads/day. How many ads are you seeing when you babble all day long with a chatbot?

There is also way more competition between chatbots than there was between search engines after Google started leaning into ads. Which strengthens the Khan-Esayas hypothesisis "that data privacy constitutes a key parameter of non-price competition in the market for" consumer tech [1][2].

[1] https://yalelawjournal.org/pdf/e.710.Khan.805_zuvfyyeh.pdf

[2] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327111419_Privacy_a...

[pjc50]

> How many ads are you seeing when you babble all day long with a chatbot?

You wouldn't see any of them, because you'd not be aware of the invisible bidding war over which products the bot recommends.

[netdevphoenix]

> When you used google 10x a day, you saw, at a minimum, 20 ads/day

That's assuming a user with no ad-blocker which is an ever diminishing number of users

[watwut]

We are talking about income from ads. It comes from people who see ads.

[iLoveOncall]

> And Google's ad revenue from search is over $100B per year.

From search or from adsense? That's very different. People place adsense banners on their websites which has nothing to do with search.

[eddythompson80]

> Google's ad revenue from search is over $100B per year.

Google serves ads on search, maps, YouTube, android apps, amd all websites using Adsense or video ads

[RugnirViking]

why would they be able to generate more revenue? it isn't clear to me. Maybe ads will be targeted better, maybe they wont. Either way, major companies marketing budgets won't be going up, only shuffling around?

So its not really much to do with the technology or how good it is, but the stories their salespeople can tell. And I guess the story isnt good/convincing enough

[zpeti]

Because writing a headline with 90% miss in it will get more clicks than actually thinking through business strategy and realistic projections.

[adventured]

The same kind of speculation questioned whether Facebook would ever have a significant business. Before that, the same was asked about Google's business.

If GPT can maintain or grow usage, the ad dollars will be there given the enormous scale. There is a hundred billion dollars plus worth of advertising waiting in the LLM space. It would be surprising if Facebook doesn't contract for example, losing ground to LLMs on advertising over the coming decade.

[hsb3]

They have to build out all the backend ad tech crap that google and fb have built over decades. As in the campaign tools, scheduling, targeting, analytics, auctions, exchanges etc. Advertisers and publishers have already deeply integtated into that eco system. Also the google and fb system has created a content generating army that is incentivized to fight tooth and nail for eyeballs. OpenAI doesnt reduce the activities of the eyeball capture army, it just freaks them out and pushes them into overdrive.

[wonnage]

WhatsApp and Messenger have billions of users but don’t make much ad revenue. I’m sure there exists a way to show ads in ChatGPT that will be figured out eventually but so far nobody’s figured out how to monetize chat as a medium

Also it’s basically free for Google to show you a sponsored result but embedding one in a ChatGPT response actually costs money (assuming they’re part of the generated response).

Lastly I will bet you one Stargate datacenter that Meta has thought about LLM-based advertising, and if there’s any low hanging fruit there it’s already been tried

[fragmede]

> WhatsApp and Messenger have billions of users but don’t make much ad revenue.

Not directly, but I bet that connection graph is worth millions. Same with the Giphy keyboard purchase. There's a whole unseen economy of data being valuable for reasons that aren't widely discussed.

[watwut]

Facebook was in financial loss until it got really serious about pushing ads and outrage. People who speculated that Facebook is not earning much on ads while Facebook was not earning much on ads were correct. Same with Googles business.

And also, very relatedly, both companies enshittified their products great deal in the process. Google search used to be better for average user, Facebook used to be better for average user.

Genimi can start pushing ads everywhere, can start using dark patterns to better manipulate us and one they will. They will start earning more money at that point.