[Starman_Jones]

For the cost to develop the polio vaccine, March of Dimes could have bought enough iron lungs to save 12,000 lives. Of course, they had no idea what the actual number would be beforehand; all they knew is that they were spending enormous sums of money on something that could turn out to be a catastrophic waste, rather than saving thousands of lives. At the end of the day, they felt that was a worthwhile risk. With hindsight, we can see that they right.

[joshjob42]

Sure and if she was funding high cost high risk high reward research I'd say that's a good case for that being higher in expected value but higher variance than GiveWell, but she is mostly not doing that, instead giving to basically normal causes and institutions to spend money on the things they were anyway.

The value of a billionaire lies on their ability to concentrate large sums of capital on high risk projects with enormous upside. Spending money instead on fairly pedestrian applications of money for philanthropy doesn't do that, she has more closely approximated taking an index fund or generic philanthropy. That's fine but has none of the benefits of concentrated wealth to kick us over local maximuma and none of the enormously higher utility of genuinely effective causes.