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by lubujackson 20 days ago
Best comparison is Anthropic/OpenAI are AOL/Prodigy. Massive market capture, no moat. Little by little, the convenience and weight will be scraped off, but they (probably) won't roll over and die for quite a while.

By the same measure, NVDA is Cisco, providing the backbone and capturing a ton of the early benefits, but soon becomes furniture while the excitement moves further up the chain.

2 comments

I think a contemporary comparison is OpenAI's DALL-E. Predating but foreshadowing LLMs they went closed source and tried to monetize it, but within a few years the entire concept just fell apart. Now you can download free open source software, that works better than DALL-E and runs fine on a plain old video card, and for orders of magnitude lower cost.

I think we can start to see the outlines of this happening with LLMs as well. Local models have gone from being proofs of concept to something that is at least remotely comparable to contemporary models, and the gap there is closing faster than SOTA models are pushing it forward. Local models still suffer from high hardware requirements, but so did early image gen models where typical consumer hardware was insufficient for efficiently running them.

This will also create a regulatory issue

The US government thinks they can dictate who can access "Mythos-level" (whatever that is) LLMs. But what will happen when this can be run on consumer hardware?

I guess this will be yet another vector too attack open computing and the idea that people can a) own computers, and b) choose what software they run on their own computers

> Now you can download free open source software, that works better than DALL-E and runs fine on a plain old video card, and for orders of magnitude lower cost.

Ok, I completely missed that one. Can you point me in the right direction?

Sure, for a balance between usability and power I'd recommend fooocus. [1] AmuseAI [2] is an alternative that is extremely plug-and-play which can be especially handy with AMD hardware, but is a bit less powerful and also censored by default. ComfyUI [3] is an advanced tool for rich customization and what not. However it's anything but comfy if you're not already quite knowledgeable in this domain - I would not recommend it for a first tool.

[1] - https://github.com/lllyasviel/Fooocus

[2] - https://github.com/saddam213/AmuseAI

[3] - https://github.com/comfy-org/comfyui

Thank you!
Cisco is also doing quite well with the AI boom