[gb2d_hn]

Which is why these companies must be overvalued. This is the definition of a commodity. We have no loyalty to any vendor or model, it's just about capability, price and performance and there can only be so many more increments in capability before these models are good enough that it doesn't matter which you use for 99.9 pct of tasks and the frontier moves on to robotics or the next hard domain (which OpenAI / Anthropic may not lead). I predict that in a year I'll be using whatever the latest version of Gemini flash is (because it's fast, on my mobile and multimodal), and some small cheap open SWE expert model for dev work.

[swader999]

Don't get me wrong, I love Claude code and there is some loyalty I feel. But just can't justify staying if costs 2x.

[JumpCrisscross]

> This is the definition of a commodity

Not really. It’s the definition of a tight market with two leaders.

When folks start running various rando open-source models locally instead of well-recognized brands, then we will have evidence of fungibility and thus commoditization.

[raesene9]

I'd say for some sectors and users, we're already seeing that. After GLM-5.2's release there were quite a few stories about it picking up use.

Then looking at Openrouter's stats we can see heavy use of non Anthropic/OpenAI models https://openrouter.ai/rankings#top-models

I'm not sure I'd call them rando, but Deepseek/Qwen/GLM all have decent models that will work fine for some use cases at much lower costs that the SOTA models from Anthropic/OpenAI.

[gb2d_hn]

Exactly. As soon as business works out that there are open models that can achieve parity at a fraction of the cost, they will switch model. They have to. Business exists to make money, and if they can do the same thing at lower cost, they will.